MSU NW

We found out after the Illinois game that Raymar Morgan was battling some sort of bug. It turns out Raymar was only starting to feel the effects and missed or took part in a limited way in practice Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. According to reports there is a fair chance he will not play against NW tonight.

NW is the definition of a "trap game." A bigger game on the horizon (OSU away), a zone defense and constant motion and backscreening on offense (scheming), the ability to heat up from behind the arc (Moore, Coble), and the fact that MSU is home and should win this game set up for a letdown. Throw in that Raymar might not play and this could be ugly.

Three reasons MSU will, nevertheless, pull out a win tonight.

1. Unexpected players will step up. Chris Allen has pretty much sucked of late. Against a zone it is crucial that two things happen; guards must penetrate and force the zone to collapse/rotate and perimeter shooting must be a real threat. Lucas has to get into seems and Allen and Summers need to hit shots. Allen is due. Another great weapon against a zone like NW is a great passing big man. Roe is also due and fits the bill.

2. Izzo will not allow Moore, after torching MSU in their last 3 meetings, to go off tonight from behind the arc. Allen will be focused, Walton will be like a glove, and Suton/Gray/Roe will actually defend on the screen hedges --- not token defense but real attention to the shooter --- making Moore's night tough. Coble, on the other hand, is a tougher matchup since he can play inside and out.

3. Gray loves to play NW. I mean think about it. He doesn't box out anyways, so playing a zone puts him in the same position as everyone else on his team (on the offensive end). NW is long, but not terribly athletic inside. If he avoids the charge Gray should be able to score in double digits. Finally, he doesn't stay close enough to his man on defense to get fooled by a backscreen. That is to say, when you are four ball fakes behind in comprehension you might actually be in the right place at the right time, just for the wrong reason.

One of the funnier things I heard this year came from homer studio analyst (w/ a face made for radio and voice made for...pantomime) and former NW player (sort of) Tim Doyle. During the MSU NW game in Evanston he said "...I really believe that Northwestern could have, should have won the game." Now Timmy come on. In fairness his statement was in regards to Raymar Morgan being the only reason MSU won. But give me a break. Could have? Yes. Should have? You are a fool.

I expect that the crafty NW Wildcats will find a way to make a 3 off a Suton ass inbound assist. Just a shot in the dark.

There is a rumor that, in response to the NW zone defense Izzo will run a take off the box and one. Rather than run one defender man to man and the rest in a zone Izzo will flip it, making Idong Ibok the zone and everyone else man to man. One NW player will be unguarded, unless of course he is in Ibok's area, but Ibok will never be out of position. Gray could also spell Ibok in the paint.

There is a real possibility that Summers will set a career mark in stepping out of bounds tonight. Against the pressuring NW zone an offense can easily be pushed further and further from the basket looking for space to maneuver. This is dangerous for Summer who routinely plays with one foot in and one foot out already.

One note from the Illinois game. Draymond Green did not score any points but should have been awarded a KO for the jumpball-turned-powerslam. Green lifted the Illinois player, twisted at the waist and slammed him on the floor. Rampage Jackson would have been proud.