I don't want to call it too early. However, I have looked over the schedules. Things set up nicely for MSU if they can get two wins out of the following 5:
- at MN
- at OSU
- at Purdue
- at Wisc
- at Ill
Ohio State, Minny, and Purdue have already lost 3 games each. All three have played a fairly balanced schedule in terms of home and road games against both weak and difficult opponents.
Michigan has lost 2 games but one loss was to Indiana. UM also hasn't played Wisc, Purdue, or MSU at all yet.
Illinois still has an outside chance, but the 4-0 record coming into last weekend was deceiving. Illinois had beaten: NW at home (OT), Iowa at home, Indiana on the road, and Penn State at home. Hardly murderers row. Despite Demetri McCamey's thoughts to the contrary* Illinois is not that good. His coach knows better:
"[MSU has] eight starters, and every day somebody is giving them something special."
I don't know about 8 starters, but there are 7 guys that would start for almost any team in the conference. There are guys at the end of the bench that would dominate in some conferences.
Northwestern could make the tournament, but they won't win the B10. Indiana is at least a year away. Penn State is giving Iowa a run for the worst conference team ever award. (Iowa is still worse)
I don't want to jump the gun. MSU still goes on the road for 5 tough games. But win 2 of those and I have to believe they control their own destiny.
Given my choice I would take wins at Purdue and Ohio State. Win 3 and there might not even be a race. A third win? I'll take at Wisconsin, just to win at Wisconsin, but without Leuer they are not nearly as good. They are dangerous, because they will shoot 2x as many 3's, but they aren't as good consistently. I think a win at Minnesota would be more valuable. And, of course, wins at Penn State and Indiana are a must. Michigan, too, must be crushed.
MSU should come out and put a hurting on Iowa this week. Iowa, as previously mentioned, is bad. They beat Penn State somehow. I didn't watch it but my only guess is Talor Battle was being Talor Battle and forgot to 1. run plays**, 2. pass, 3. listen to anyone besides Talor Battle. Iowa got exactly what was advertised in hiring Lickliter; a mid major coach. Unfortunately Iowa is, at best, an average mid major basketball program right now. There doesn't appear to be a lot of hope on the horizon either.
This could be a chance for Nix and Sherman to get more minutes. Hell, Herzog might play.
MSU - 72
Iowa - 60
I watched Indiana beat Minny this weekend. I hate to say it, because he's family, but I wonder about Crean as a coach. I wonder how much of his success was having Dwayne Wade, McNeal, and James. All coaches benefit from players, there is no question about that. But all things being equal, or somewhat equal, coaches make a difference. Crean has a younger team, at Indiana, than Tubby at Minn. He also has a little less talent. But with a big lead IU went into a shell, ran terrible plays, and seemed to do everything wrong before pulling out an OT win. Tubby outcoached Crean. Izzo outcoached Crean. Lots of people in the Big East outcoached Crean. I just question things a little. Who knows, a year from now he might be contending for the league. The cupboards were rather bare.
The reffing continues to blow my mind. This week two plays stand out. A shot clock violation call after Kalin Lucas clearly pushed the ball halfway up the floor and lost it out of bounds (in our favor) and what appeared to be a trip from behind that turned into a step and a half, layup, and one situation. I thought I was watching the NBA. That, my friends, is continuation. Do not ruin the college game with continuation.
Also, stop rushing the floor. Michigan, yes you beat #15 Uconn. You also lost to Indiana and Alabama. You are unranked and have a very, very slim chance of making the 64. Don't rush the floor.
Indiana, you beat Minnesota in overtime at home. Neither team is ranked. It was not to win a championship. There are a dozen conference games left. Do not rush the floor. Bobby Knight would choke you right now if he could.
*McCamey said something to the effect of "we match up with [MSU] athletically but they out hustled us." Well, in short, no you don't. You might match up athletically, but your team certainly does not. That will be obvious next year when freshmen start over seniors. (great recruiting class coming in, for some coach, starting to wonder if it will be Weber)
**Battle did run one play: Talor Battle shoots from his current location. Wherever you are on the floor. Wherever you are in the shot clock. Also known as "if I'm off the bus I'm within my range.
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