I really do not have a lot to say about last week's game against northern colorado. First, I didn't see it. Second, it was like a scrimmage against a pretty good high school team. Really, it is a joke to charge fans full price for these games and equally a joke to include the results in any ranking. I also don't really care for playing games like this leading in to more serious play. I don't buy the confidence builder argument, either. The only upside I see is getting healthy. MSU wasn't really hurting.
But here we are. Wisconsin comes to town this weekend for a matchup of unbeatens. The teams both also happen to be unproven, struggling at times against lesser talent and beating up on cupcakes (70-3? Really?).
I maintain that Wisconsin is not flashy nor terribly impressive in any one facet of the game. However, as ND showed against MSU, it is all about matchups. Style, goals, and talent matchups. Unfortunately, although not flashy, Wisconsin is a more solid version of MSU, at least where it matters: in the trenches.
I like MSU's receivers, running backs, and tight ends better. Honestly, I don't think Tolzien is that much better than Cousins. I do recognize that Cousins has not played very well this season, and certainly not under pressure. I like MSU punting and kick returning better, and I like MSU's linebacking group better. Wisconsin wins every other matchup. The OLine, Dline, kicking, and secondary are all better for the badgers. The Oline and Dline talent gap, especially the gap between UW's Oline and MSU's Dline* is significant.
That said, with any improvement in the MSU secondary, I like MSU's chances in this game. I think a fast start in scoring by both team will fall in to a run the ball, time of possession, field position game decided by special teams. Punt returns, kick returns, and punting will make the difference. Although, if MSU has 11 penalties again this won't even be close.
my best:
MSU - 31
UW - 27
*with the exception of Jerel Worthy. He will play on Sundays. I would almost bet he plays on Sundays next season. The only reason he doesn't look more dominant is the lack of pass rush from everyone else.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Rumored Heart Attack
Pseudo news all over Twitter about a Dantonio Hearth Attack. News conference scheduled for 1:00 pm today. Lets hope for the best.
Preliminary Reaction
In hindsight, obviously, the decision is not that difficult. Think about it.
The kicker is young. It's a 46 yard kick. The best possible result? Another OT.
The most important factor? You've already held ND to a field goal. The defense is not likely to do it again. The offense looks worse with each passing second. The QB is, to put it kindly, doing everything wrong. The line isn't giving him any time and the play calling is atrocious. In the next OT MSU has the ball first, giving Kelly the same benefit of knowing whether he needs a TD or just a field goal. As a coach what would you do? I think, although your odds are only about 25%* of completing the fake, you might only have a 25% chance of winning in another OT. That may be generous.
So, again with the benefit of hindsight, the call wasn't that ballsy. In fact, it may have been the logical thing to do.
*based on zero research, analysis, or expertise
The kicker is young. It's a 46 yard kick. The best possible result? Another OT.
The most important factor? You've already held ND to a field goal. The defense is not likely to do it again. The offense looks worse with each passing second. The QB is, to put it kindly, doing everything wrong. The line isn't giving him any time and the play calling is atrocious. In the next OT MSU has the ball first, giving Kelly the same benefit of knowing whether he needs a TD or just a field goal. As a coach what would you do? I think, although your odds are only about 25%* of completing the fake, you might only have a 25% chance of winning in another OT. That may be generous.
So, again with the benefit of hindsight, the call wasn't that ballsy. In fact, it may have been the logical thing to do.
*based on zero research, analysis, or expertise
Friday, September 17, 2010
Spartans & the Irish
Let's just be honest. We don't know anything about MSU.
Let's continue with the honesty. We won't know much more after tomorrow night.
MSU has run about 30% of the playbook so far. The game plan has been run, run, and run. Pass on 3rd down. Take a shot down field every other possession. Punt. Kick. Run. The defense get little to no pressure from the front 4, can't seem to contain, and continues to drop interceptions (at least 3 against Western). However, again, that is all out of the base defense with vanilla looks and, with the exception of Rucker on a couple of corner blitzes, no extra pressure to speak of.
And after Notre Dame leaves town? We'll know a little bit more about Cousins, the receivers, and perhaps this 3-4 defense. I would expect to see some of the 3-4 against this spread. It should tell us a little more about how the defense will look against michigan and Northwestern. Other than that? Notre Dame is atypical and, honestly, not that impressive. Kelly will change that by next season and the weaker than normal schedule this year will be deceptive. But this team is a year away from making noise.
I don't even know what to say about Crist's "migraine." The migraine that was not a concussion. The migraine that cause blurred vision, memory loss, incoherence, and came after a hit to the head. Why would anyone think it was a concussion? I wonder, if ND was handling um rather than looking like William & Mary (minus William), my guess is Crist isn't even playing this week. But, magically, he was back in the second half. Maybe it really wasn't a concussion. I'm sure that's the sort of the thing you figure out at halftime.
I like ND's talent positions, with Floyd, Rudolph, and Allen. Crist, when coherent, was by far the best signal caller. Nate Montana was, well, less than impressive. Either um's defense is A LOT better than they should be (somehow doubt it) or ND's offense is underachieving. The defense probably did a good job of keeping Robinson to 2200 yards for the game. Pryor (OSU) took, and takes, all sorts of crap for being a running back that sometimes throws the ball. Robinson had more carries last game than any other Michigan running back has for the season. That is difficult to plan for and even more difficult to stop on the fly. What would I do? Treat him as a running back. Assume he will run on every play. The corners are going to give up plays anyways. Gamble some. Hit him. Hit him again. Hit him hard. Bring corners, safeties, linebackers, bring everyone. Hit him on the option. Hit him when he runs. Hit him when he throws. Then hit Gardner. Then, if he's moved up to the 3rd spot on the depth chart, hit Lil Man tate until his dad feels it.
The MSU defense could be physical, especially Worthy and Ghoulston. I like Worthy in this week's game to get at least 1 sack. I also like the defense to FINALLY make a play on a ball, jump a route, and return one for a score.
Make it:
MSU - 38
ND - 26
Let's continue with the honesty. We won't know much more after tomorrow night.
MSU has run about 30% of the playbook so far. The game plan has been run, run, and run. Pass on 3rd down. Take a shot down field every other possession. Punt. Kick. Run. The defense get little to no pressure from the front 4, can't seem to contain, and continues to drop interceptions (at least 3 against Western). However, again, that is all out of the base defense with vanilla looks and, with the exception of Rucker on a couple of corner blitzes, no extra pressure to speak of.
And after Notre Dame leaves town? We'll know a little bit more about Cousins, the receivers, and perhaps this 3-4 defense. I would expect to see some of the 3-4 against this spread. It should tell us a little more about how the defense will look against michigan and Northwestern. Other than that? Notre Dame is atypical and, honestly, not that impressive. Kelly will change that by next season and the weaker than normal schedule this year will be deceptive. But this team is a year away from making noise.
I don't even know what to say about Crist's "migraine." The migraine that was not a concussion. The migraine that cause blurred vision, memory loss, incoherence, and came after a hit to the head. Why would anyone think it was a concussion? I wonder, if ND was handling um rather than looking like William & Mary (minus William), my guess is Crist isn't even playing this week. But, magically, he was back in the second half. Maybe it really wasn't a concussion. I'm sure that's the sort of the thing you figure out at halftime.
I like ND's talent positions, with Floyd, Rudolph, and Allen. Crist, when coherent, was by far the best signal caller. Nate Montana was, well, less than impressive. Either um's defense is A LOT better than they should be (somehow doubt it) or ND's offense is underachieving. The defense probably did a good job of keeping Robinson to 2200 yards for the game. Pryor (OSU) took, and takes, all sorts of crap for being a running back that sometimes throws the ball. Robinson had more carries last game than any other Michigan running back has for the season. That is difficult to plan for and even more difficult to stop on the fly. What would I do? Treat him as a running back. Assume he will run on every play. The corners are going to give up plays anyways. Gamble some. Hit him. Hit him again. Hit him hard. Bring corners, safeties, linebackers, bring everyone. Hit him on the option. Hit him when he runs. Hit him when he throws. Then hit Gardner. Then, if he's moved up to the 3rd spot on the depth chart, hit Lil Man tate until his dad feels it.
The MSU defense could be physical, especially Worthy and Ghoulston. I like Worthy in this week's game to get at least 1 sack. I also like the defense to FINALLY make a play on a ball, jump a route, and return one for a score.
Make it:
MSU - 38
ND - 26
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Dream Job
I want to be the guy that sets the manufacturer's suggested retail price ("MSRP"). Think about it. Setting it goes something like this:
ME: What do you want to sell the item for?
CFO: $AAA.BB
ME: Ok. Is this product a really good deal, a good deal, or an overrated brand name?
CFO: good deal.
ME: Ok. I'll crunch some numbers.
4 seconds and 1 calculation later...
ME: the MSRP is ($AAA.BB) X (1.5)
CFO: what if it is a really good deal?
ME: ($AAA.BB) X (2)
CFO: what if it is an overrated name brand?
ME: those aren't manufactured, they're crafted
ME: What do you want to sell the item for?
CFO: $AAA.BB
ME: Ok. Is this product a really good deal, a good deal, or an overrated brand name?
CFO: good deal.
ME: Ok. I'll crunch some numbers.
4 seconds and 1 calculation later...
ME: the MSRP is ($AAA.BB) X (1.5)
CFO: what if it is a really good deal?
ME: ($AAA.BB) X (2)
CFO: what if it is an overrated name brand?
ME: those aren't manufactured, they're crafted
Friday, September 10, 2010
A Day in the D
If the rain holds off, it could be a great, great day.
If the rain comes, it could be a great afternoon and the casino determines the greatness of the night.
Tomorrow we leave town at 8am for our annual MSU road trip. To Ford Field. To see a game against Florida Atlantic. It has been covered ad nauseum in the Detroit media, so I won't go in to it.
The last time I saw Florida Atlantic play was at Spartan Stadium. It rained. It rained a lot. The tailgate was miserable and the game was worse. It rained so hard the water ran down the stairs in small rivers, cascading over each step and washing away all the joy and happiness of a fall Saturday.
Tomorrow the game is indoors, thankfully. Of course the 7:05 Tigers game is just in time for a 7:30 pm thunderstorm (60% chance).
Florida Atlantic is 1-0 after beating UAB 32-31 last weekend. Florida Atlantic threw for 254 yards and ran for 93, but threw the ball 24 times and ran 28. The running game is either terrible, or UAB's defensive front is great. I am leaning towards the former.
The good news? UAB ran up 424 yards of offense with 345 rushing yards (47 rushing attempts!). Caper, Baker, and Bell must be salivating just thinking about the field turf and that defense. With only 79 passing yards (19 attempts) I have to guess UAB is not a great passing team. It will be interesting to see if it was partly FAU's secondary and how MSU decides to attack it.
I am also anxious to see how the kicking game looks on the turf. The real excitement will come from watching the athletic tight ends fully utilized (if the FAU secondary is that good) and Keshawn Martin on the carpet. He could be scary. FAU has a good punting game.
Greg Jones and company should be even more effective on the turf, and I expect the interception drought to not only end, but end in a pick 6. FAU QB Van Camp spread the ball around to 6 different players last week, but only one player had more than 1 catch. That player was Lester Jean, who finished with 9 catches for 164 yards and 2 TD's. He is a big target at 6'3" 195lbs, but will be getting plenty of attention, you can be sure.
MSU is just too deep at receiver, running back, and tight end to not score frequently. The defense will be tested by a team that
Make it:
MSU - 41
FAU - 24
If the rain comes, it could be a great afternoon and the casino determines the greatness of the night.
Tomorrow we leave town at 8am for our annual MSU road trip. To Ford Field. To see a game against Florida Atlantic. It has been covered ad nauseum in the Detroit media, so I won't go in to it.
The last time I saw Florida Atlantic play was at Spartan Stadium. It rained. It rained a lot. The tailgate was miserable and the game was worse. It rained so hard the water ran down the stairs in small rivers, cascading over each step and washing away all the joy and happiness of a fall Saturday.
Tomorrow the game is indoors, thankfully. Of course the 7:05 Tigers game is just in time for a 7:30 pm thunderstorm (60% chance).
Florida Atlantic is 1-0 after beating UAB 32-31 last weekend. Florida Atlantic threw for 254 yards and ran for 93, but threw the ball 24 times and ran 28. The running game is either terrible, or UAB's defensive front is great. I am leaning towards the former.
The good news? UAB ran up 424 yards of offense with 345 rushing yards (47 rushing attempts!). Caper, Baker, and Bell must be salivating just thinking about the field turf and that defense. With only 79 passing yards (19 attempts) I have to guess UAB is not a great passing team. It will be interesting to see if it was partly FAU's secondary and how MSU decides to attack it.
I am also anxious to see how the kicking game looks on the turf. The real excitement will come from watching the athletic tight ends fully utilized (if the FAU secondary is that good) and Keshawn Martin on the carpet. He could be scary. FAU has a good punting game.
Greg Jones and company should be even more effective on the turf, and I expect the interception drought to not only end, but end in a pick 6. FAU QB Van Camp spread the ball around to 6 different players last week, but only one player had more than 1 catch. That player was Lester Jean, who finished with 9 catches for 164 yards and 2 TD's. He is a big target at 6'3" 195lbs, but will be getting plenty of attention, you can be sure.
MSU is just too deep at receiver, running back, and tight end to not score frequently. The defense will be tested by a team that
Make it:
MSU - 41
FAU - 24
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