For years NW has used good shooters and discipline to run a gimmick offense (Princeton like). Sub par athletes are asked to execute with perfection, limit the number of possession on both ends of the floor, play zone defense, hit free throws...and pray. The idea is certainly based on fundamentals; shooting, reading the defense, and crisp execution. However, it is the equivalent of the option offense in college football. It won't ever translate to the NBA and to be successful it requires a number of things to happen.
On offense perimeter shots need to fall. If the 3 isn't falling defenders don't have to step out and overplay. If defenders don't overplay you don't get backdoor layups. If you don't make 3's and don't get layups...you don't control the pace or the score. Rebounds come off to superior athletes and, lets be honest, these gimmick teams aren't deep on talent or prepared to play in transition.
Michigan is now running a similar system. It is not the same, but based on the same principles. Michigan has attempted 637 three point shots to date. That is 200+ more 3's than NW (NW w/ 3 fewer games played). Michigan is out NW'ing NW. Any way you cut it, um is a scary match up for MSU. Penn State and Northwestern have both shown what getting lucky from 3 can do.
I did say lucky. While both NW and PSU have improved a great deal this year (and I believe PSU will make the NCAA tourney, and NW could win the BTTourney for the autobid) neither had any business winning at the Bres. Junk shots, and I do mean junk, were falling. From 4 feet behind the arc, early in the shot clock, banking hard off the glass. Those are the shots that were falling. Those are the shots that teams like NW and Michigan need to win against superior talent. Many call the 3 point shot "the great equalizer." Sure...just like the lottery is the great equalizer. It is a gamble that pays off big from time to time, but the odds aren't in favor of it working for a full season.
The sad things is um is pretty talented. From top to bottom um is probably more talented than both NW and PSU. They don't need to gimmick. But they do, so here are the keys.
1. Allen, Lucas, and Summers all have to be consistent. Forget hot, I just want consistent. If each one shoots 33% or better from 3 um can't stay in a zone for long.
2. Lucas, Walton, and Lucious all have to get in the lane. Too often against a zone MSU dribbles around the perimeter making dangerous passes from guard to guard, most of whom can't handle the ball (Allen) under pressure. It doesn't advance the offense, finds the ball moving ever closer to half court (as opposed to the rim), and doesn't attack the zone from its weak points -- the paint and the short wings.
3. Suton, Gray, and Roe have to rebound early and often with strenff (which is Clark Kellogg speak for strength). um is long and has decent size. Rebounds must be solidly secured with good outlet passes. um is not deep enough to run for 40 minutes.
4. Everyone has to hit free throws. Not even a late lead is good against 3 point shooting teams if you can't make free throws. MSU has taken 100 more free throws this season than the next closest team (purdue) and with good reason. The Spartans are shooting just 68% from the line. I would foul too.
5. um can't get lucky. Players w/out a conscience (internal or on the sideline) can get hot in ways that cannot be helped. Talor Battle (PSU) is apparently allowed to take whatever shot he chooses, over whatever defense, at any point in the shot clock and from anywhere on the floor he likes. When they go in he looks smart and it is nearly impossible to stop (especially since guarding him = foul). Personally I find most of his shots to be stupid and liken them to investing for retirement in a 401L (lottery). Sometimes it works.
If um is making 3's it could be a close game to the end.
I predict a um lead in the first half of 5-8 points followed by an MSU run to start the second half. um can't guard MSU's depth for 40 minutes (although having Morgan in the lineup would be nice) and can't maintain an adrenaline high for two halves, especially coming off a tough loss to Uconn. If Lucas is determined to get in the lane um has no answer.
MSU - 70
ummm - 63
It is funny to think of Michigan as running a gimmick in both football and basketball. Almost as funny as smash mouth MSU hiring John L Smith. Almost as funny as the average um fan.
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