Think about it; both teams are rather hard to figure. Alabama lost 3 games this season, which makes the matchup against an 11-1 team look lopsided. But, those losses came to S.Carolina, LSU and Auburn (the LSU and Auburn losses by a combined 4 points). Ingram didn't play or was limited for half the season. McElroy was limited or hurt in a number of games, including the 1 point loss to Auburn. So, not too shabby.
MSU won a lot of close games, with trick plays and late comebacks, but lost big on the road to Iowa. Iowa is obviously a lot better than their final record looked and MSU was playing through a lot of unknown (but apparent) injuries on both sides of the ball. So...what does anyone really know about either team?
MSU can win this game. They don't need trick plays, or misdirection or big breaks. The game MSU can win is boring and technically beautiful. It comes down to 3 basics: Don't beat yourself (penalties, drops, fumbles), good play calling, and execution. Sounds obvious, but I really think MSU's best chance to win is just playing smart.
The first is one obvious: penalties kill your own drives, extend the opponent's drives, and negate special teams plays. In a game of inches you have to have positives on every possession. That means scoring, obviously, but it can also be as simple as holding the ball as long as possible and changing field possession on EVERY possession. Keep the other teams offense off the field and, if you have to give it back without scoring, pin them deep.
The second is less obvious, and perhaps the most important. Don't out think yourself and don't be predictable. Too often MSU play calling is so obvious I can tell you what the play will be before the snap. That can workout against a team of lesser talent; here's what I'm planning to do now try to stop me. However, 'Bama is not that kind of opponent. In fact, Alabama is bigger and stronger than MSU where it matters. To negate that speed and size playing calling must be nearly perfect. And I don't mean hitting homeruns. I mean calling the play that gets you 5 yards instead of losing 3. I mean the play that allows you to be in a 3rd and short rather than 3rd and 8+. It means having a shot to make a field goal on 4th down rather than being 4-6 yards out of range based on your 1st, 2nd and 3rd down choices. That will be the difference between MSU
winning and losing. And, again, because it is a game of inches, if play calling goes wrong (and Cousins is continually in 3rd and 11) things could go very bad, very quickly.
The third is pretty obvious. Even if the play calling is perfect players have to execute. Blocking has to be perfect, hand offs have to be clean. Shots down field, when they come, have to lead player that find space rather than hanging. Audibles have to be perfect. Kick coverage and punting have to be smart.
If those things come together MSU can win this game. Alabama can run the ball with 2 great, fast and physical backs. Unfortunately, once you sneak up to support the run game Julio Jones is a legit NFL receiver (think Anquan Boldin). McElroy can make the throws. This team can play a very balanced game and also just flat out beat you up for 4 yards a carry up the middle. That sounds scary until you realize MSU strength is linebacking and offensive line. MSU's strength might not be good enough to match up with 'Bama, but I would rather take my chances strength to strength. The secondary still isn't very smart.
Keshawn Martin needs to touch the ball often in space. Kick and punt returns, screens, end arounds, and perhaps from the backfield. He (and maybe fowler) are the only two real 1:1 match-ups MSU can exploit. I also like Baker and Bell at the second level. Look for one big run from Bell.
My guess:
MSU -- 34
Ala -- 31
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