Michigan State travels to Penn State today to play Talor Battle and the Nittany Talor Battles. The only catch is, this season, he has more of a supporting cast. Despite the team actually being much better on paper this year than last, PSU has been mosty abysmal. Although they've lost to some pretty good teams (@Maryland, @ Va Tech, @ Miss, Home to Purdue) you can't lose to Maine at home by 10. The same Maine that has lost to Hartford (the insurance company?) Columbia, Delaware State, Brown and Quinnipiac. That Maine.
The Lions are 8-6 (1-2) and rank, according to ESPN, 239th in points per game, 246th in rebounds per game, 240th in assists per game and 228th in field goal percentage.
Battle is going to shoot, early and often, from near and far. Frazier is averaging about 5 assists per game to only 2 turnovers. Brooks is solid and is probably one of the more versatile players in the conference.
PSU's biggest problem is that Battle is averaging almost 37 minutes per game and Brooks is averaging almost 32. This early in the season you can get away with that. Unfortunately, for them, to burn up your two best players early you would hope to have a decent record. This team had hopes of making the NCAA tournament. I don't see how that happens w/out winning the B10 tournament.
Battle doesn't play a lot of defense (1.6 fouls per game). I think the key to this game is forcing him to play on both ends. MSU got Brooks in foul trouble last February and took him almost entirely out of the game. Beyond Battle and Brooks, PSU big man Jones (6'10" 245lbs) is solid but isn't a real scoring threat outside of 5'. He hasn't attempted a 3 this season and shoots 48% from the charity stripe. He will have a long day with the rotation of Sherman, Nix, Payne and help from Green/Roe. Payne is likely too thin to bang with him, but could really take advantage on the offensive end with far superior athleticism and speed. Nix will see minutes today, lots of minutes.
The real key for PSU could be Jackson (6'7" 210lbs) because of his size. This is the guy Raymar Morgan or Chris Allen would have been guarding. Roe just isn't there yet on perimeter defense and Jackson fits the mold of that tweener size guy that gives MSU fits. He isn't afraid to take a 3 (took 6 against Furman*) and he hits at a decent enough rate that you have to respect it. That worries me. Roe is at his worst on the perimeter, jumping in to jump shooters on pump fakes, arriving too late to challenge and playing matador on a pump fake and drive.
I don't like playing teams like PSU. They have nothing to lose, except a bunch more games, and everything to gain. This is a resume builder for a desperate, very experienced and very undisciplined team. PSU starts and gets significant minutes from 4 seniors. Despite their experience, they take bad shots. They shoot and hit garbage. They play sloppy defense and make poor decisions. They are, somehow, still cocky.
Battle is a tough guy to guard and this is the sort of yawner that MSU typically phones in. I hope Izzo showed them the tape of last year's game that was way too close. I hope Draymond and Payne decide they want to pad the stats today, packing away a few points for lean times (Purdue, Wisconsin). I hope Appling doesn't get hit with cheap fouls (which Battle always draws). I hope Summers doesn't let Brooks get in his head, and Roe and Green play real defense.
Before a prediction, and while I'm talking about him, I have to discuss Green. He is great and I love him for all the reasons everyone else does. He is an enigma. He is smart. He can be a coach on the floor. He is tough to guard. He moves very, very well for his size.
That said, why does everyone ignore his faults? He is constantly out of position on defense. He has the second most turnovers on the team; 2 less than Lucas and 4 more than Lucious. He is the co-captain of the "I haven't considered what you are going to do with this pass once you get it, but It looks tough, so I'm going to try to make it" club. He is reading his own press. He has become a caricature of himself, the guy that makes the unusual play is looking for the most difficult play on the floor to keep that image. He swings for the fences rather than taking the double or triple. Yes, double or triple. He doesn't need to settle for singles because he is that good. But he can't look to make an ESPN highlight reel every time he touches it either. The highlight reel Green should aspire to is in film sessions, for doing the things that Izzo appreciates. Rebound, outlet, defend, be tenacious, be tough, finish. Finish shots, finish possessions and finish games.
The club I mentioned above meets regularly. The motto? I think I saw some daylight between defenders, 25' up the floor, with a teammate on the other end. Better yet? That teammate looks to be Shermanesque (see: ping pong paddles where hands should be) and by the time the pass gets in his area it will be shin high and he'll be in the locker room. Perfect. I think I'll try to make that pass. The result? Two options: 1. it gets intercepted by one of the 3 defenders likely in the area, or 2. the teammate catches the ball and proceeds to step on the endline, charge or travel. It is almost like Lucious and Green think getting the pass there is worth 2 points and they never consider putting their teammates in a position to, you know, actually do something with the ball once they [maybe] catch it. I liken it to throwing a short crossing route to your slot receiver (5'11" 165 lbs) and throwing it 3 feet over his head. You are not thinking about the position you are putting him, and his ribs, in.
Make today closer than it looks on paper:
MSU -- 70
PSU --- 66
*Who** plays Furman, Lehigh, St Joseph, Fairfield***, Central Connecticut, Mt St Mary's, Columbia, Brown, Quinnipiac and Maine? Who plays those teams and has an 8-6 record??
**The answer is Penn State and, usually, Syracuse.
***Fairfield Inn? What, did you post up Rosy and the rest of the cleaning staff?
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