Friday, December 3, 2010

Economic Rant

I don't know that I have ever agreed more with something I've heard on CNBC (Strategy Sessions) today than this. The guest was David Stockman. He was the Director of the Office of Management and Budget for Reagan (1981-1985) and wrote the first edition of the modern tax code. Obviously it is almost unrecognizable now. Off topic. The point is, our expectations are just plain wrong. When will Obama fix the jobs problem? When will Republicans fix the jobs problem?

They won't. And sadly, no one will.

The problem is our expectations are based on 2003-2007. Why we expect that level of employment, and compensation, when the whole premise was false I will never figure out. Probably the same reason people are scammed by emails offering free money and prizes for something you never entered to win or from someone you've never heard of. Short term gain with little to no work (day trading based on speed rather than fundamentals). Corporate shareholders caring only about the bottom line (quarterly reports and profits above all else, employees and corporate responsibility be damned). Americans are dumb. And they want everything quick and painless. That ain't gonna happen.

No money down, no interest ballooning adjustable rate mortgages...with no documents ("how much do you make?" ---- "Uh, $80,000...yeah $80,000." --- "Ok, sign here!") for homes that are waaay too big, or second (or third) homes leveraged to the hilt and based on overtime from uaw jobs that were obviously paying unsupportable wages.

Its grim. But its true. We are, again, leveraging things back up. Printing money. Unwilling to let these "Bush tax cuts" expire. How are we going to pay for that? What sense does that make? No one wants to pay the price, sacrifice or do the right thing. The markets are, as Mr. Stockman says "daytrader" driven. They fluctuate based on daily moves by government and external influences, not real indicators any competent investor (Buffett anyone?) would consider. Listen to this guy, even if you find him (and the topics) boring.

We have to support the middle class with manufacturing jobs and highly technical (and ever changing and willing to look ahead) industrial and R&D. Until we do that, by investing in universities like MSU, Texas A&M and PSU as well as NASA and providing incentives to actual productivity we are moving closer to catastrophe again.



2 comments:

Justin said...

I'll see your grim and raize you a completely screwed. Not only will we never see 2007 levels again (at least not sustained), our generation will never see our Country return the heights it reached on the shoulders of the Greatest Generation. And our kids won't either, unless we fix the school system now. The Boomers thought it was a great idea to make things overseas (see your bottom line comments) and to replace our economy with a services-based model. That was fine, when we educated the best and the brightest to fill those service-based positions and meet the world's demand in those areas. But we've allowed our school system to become second rate (from elementary to post-secondary to professional). The generation to follow us will be less educated than we are. I think we will end up calling it the Lost Generation. It is up to us to fix the schools so that our children (as opposed to our younger siblings) have the knowledge to bring jobs home. Further, it is up to us to raise our children to have some plain old grit and determination. If we fail there, the United States fails.

Justin said...

Good god. In my post about the lack of education given to the generation behind us, I've got about thirty seven grammatical errors.