MSU v ummmm

I have a good feeling about tonight. Dismissals, garbage play, two straight losses and too much drama aside, I have a good feeling.

Tonight should be a great evaluation tool and an accurate barometer about the rest of the season. Mostly, how do you respond to serious adversity? Everyone is counting you out and calling you out. How do you answer? One of your friends and teammates was dismissed from the team. How focused are you?

Normally, games against meeesh-again, Northwestern and other "shoot as many 3's as possible and play zone" teams worry me. I don't like that a team can shoot 35 threes against Minny, make 8, and look terrible. Then, within a matter of days, could shoot 35 threes again and get lucky, hitting 15, and hang around in a game they have no business winning. Teams do that to MSU more than anyone. Teams shoot the lights out, over defenders, from halfcourt with the shotclock running out against MSU. For some reason that doesn't bother me tonight.

I like MSU to hit 3's, FINALLY get out on the break, and close the game out at the free throw line. I like Nix to play and play well. I like Green to talk plenty of trash and come up with 10 rebounds. I like Roe to score on the inside, perhaps getting that double double he's been working for. Appling will have a tough and long night. I still like him to play beyond his freshman status and frustrate Hardaway and Morris. I like Sherman to have a big play or two, on both offense AND defense.

Make it:

MSU - 70

umm - 61

MSU poodoo In Game

I am the first person to lay blame on MSU players. I think that is pretty clear.

Where I have to draw the line is right about -- there. Lucas cannot get a call this year. He just can't. Tonight's game against Purdue is a perfect example. After about 4 non calls for Lucas, and, in fact, a terrible charge call against him, EtWuw'an Moore gets his 4th trip to the line for questionable calls. I mean really, if I'm Izzo, I'm pissed. If I'm me I'm pissed. I'm me, I'm pissed.

This is seriously garbage homer work by the refs. The Green charge is the worst call I've seen this year. Watch it again. And again. It gets worse every time.

Lucas just stole the ball and ran the floor. There was a goal tend. If that went the other way it would have been a goal tend and a foul. Oh, also, if it went the other way it would have included a lion tamer, bearded lady and meadowlark lemon. That's right, the circus and Globetrotters combined couldn't pull this crap off.

Long Cold Winter for Summers

It isn't really Durrell's fault. What other teams have figured out, and what MSU has failed to compensate for, are Summer's weaknesses.

He can't put the ball on the floor against smaller defenders.

He can't shoot coming off screens.

He can't finish down low with consistency.

He is a spot up, when already squared up, jump shooter.

How do you make that work? Well, last year, specifically in the NCAA tournament, he got no respect. Leave him open and he will hit. Let him get hot and he doesn't need much space. That isn't the case this year. He is on the scouting report. There is a star next to his name. He draws a better than average defender night in, night out.

What next? Well, you get him transition buckets. You get him early offense buckets. You run him off screens. You make the defender cheat over the top and lob the ball backdoor for easy dunks, Mo Pete style. You get the ball inside to make the zone collapse or the man defense double down, then kick back out.

So far this season MSU's little mistakes have snowballed and, more than any other player, have really hurt Summers.

The fast break is not only poor, it is terrible. There is none. When there are numbers MSU finds ways to run it wrong, letting one defender guard 2 (or 3!) people at once, or seeing players over-commit and end up too far under the basket. This doesn't help Summers, who should be excellent on the break.

In fact, the fast break is so poor that the secondary break is often nonexistent. People are so far out of position and things get so muddled up that it takes 10 seconds to get into a set. That doesn't work.

That leaves halfcourt sets to get Summers in the offensive flow. Given his limitations (not great off screens, can't create his own shot), you almost have to play inside out. However, against the zone (and most all the time) MSU has avoided the post. They have also avoided dribble penetration by the guards. That means passing the ball around the perimeter for 20 seconds then running a high screen and roll. That high screen and roll is seriously 60% of the offense.

Against a zone or tight man-to-man you have to penetrate, either off the dribble (dangerous but bigger potential reward) or off the pass (usually with a versatile big man at the high post). Drive, or pass, then kick. That is Summers' recipe for success. Either that or learn to come off screens harder and shoot off the swivel, rather than having to be entirely squared up while catching the pass.

MSU v NW liveblog

Ok, so its not live-live, but I'll be reacting in almost-real-time, with a slight delay to filter.

NU shoots too many 3's and plays a little too much zone for me to feel comfortable with this win. Shurna should be in better shape for this one, too. BUT...Summers will be looking to do something today, as will Lucas and Lucious. I would expect NU to take it at Appling given all the credit that was heaped on him after the last meeting. It could be a long day for Keith.

I like MSU by 10 at home.

Here. We. Go.

20:00 -- 16:30 Roe is playing great on ball defense. Shurna has been blocked or redirected his shot 3 times in the first 3 minutes. Summers also looks good on defensive switches. MSU still can't run a fastbreak. Payne is looking ACTIVE. Thompson carries the ball badly, and often. It never gets called.

16:30 -- 14:45 Early shots aren't falling for either team, with MSU getting some good looks but missing and NU not really getting any clean shots off. Still 4-0 at the first tv timeout, but don't expect Lucious and Summers to keep missing all day. Payne doesn't have the weight yet to bang, but is right in the mix on rebounds and running the floor really well. Again, at least 2 times so far this game MSU fails to execute on a fastbreak.

14:45 -- 12:30 Bad call on that play as the ball went off a NU players foot under the MSU basket, but after some indecision ball out to NU. Nix with a terrible shot underneath after a good pass from Lucious. Rather than bring it down and go up clean Nix tried a goofy lob-layup. This zone is really making MSU work the shotclock. Lucious finally penetrates and misses, Nix again tries a tip rather than rebounding and going up clean. Things are getting a little sloppy against the zone.

12:30 -- 11:00 NU fouls Appling for a steal, runs out on the break, travels and misses the layup but goaltends to make it a 1 point game. On the other end Summers drives and is whistled for a charge. Great sequence for refs everywhere.

11:00 -- 8:30 Roe is like a blanket on defense, but NU takes the lead on a double back cut. Meanshile MSU has 4 wanna be guards standing around the perimeter ready to fire 3's with only Roe on the block to rebound. It doesn't work if you miss. On the defensive end back to back NU layups for Draymond's man. Lucas throws a lob to Summers that lands in the 14th row. Great idea.

8:30 -- 5:30 MSU looks awful on offense. Stand around the 3 point line and fire 3's is not an offense.* Drive on these guards (appling, lucas, lucious) and get the ball inside where you can abuse this team. The current zone offense is a joke. On defense, guard the shooters and don't bother helping on drives. Make free throws.

5:30 -- 3:45 Payne and Sherman have twice left men alone under the basket on switches (see: no switch). Frank Noname is fouled but makes both free throws. Lucas goes to the other end and plays like an MSU senior** leaving his feet, throwing a pass to no one, and then committing an immediate foul.

3:45 -- :50 NU is up by 7 and turns it over AGAIN against the zone. For the 2000th consecutive season MSU can't do anything against a zone. Roe misses another layup, which I am starting to think is his intention. TERRIBLE CALL ON THORNTON when NU Nobody Norton drops 3 straight elbows but Thornton gets the call. Horrible. After review the refs add an intentional on Nuncio Nothing.

Timeout MSU with 10 seconds. I call a double screen for summers.

After a foul and MSU inbound MSU runs...the double screen for summers. Summers jumps in the air with nothing to do and throws the ball to no one. Looks like the MSU offense overall, with 18 points at the half. One -- Eight. (18)

HALF (mercifully)

Summers, to my knowledge, hasn't scored. He is MIA. If you see him, please return him to the Breslin Student Events Center. Lucas is playing really stupid. The offense is 1 and done; there is no offensive rebounding presence. If you hold a team to 23 in the half you should be up 10-15 points. Instead, MSU played a game of "anything you can screw up we can screw up worse" and put up 18 points. Appling has 1/3 of that on 2 shots. This team is an offensive joke as it 1. can't run a fast break, and 2. can't find any offense against a zone. So, if you play MSU this year and have ever even heard of the work zone, just spring back on defense and fall in to a zone. That's it. You have at least a 50:50 chance of winning. Actually, make that 60:40 if you can hit free throws, because MSU can't do that either.

Second half, IPA in hand, here we go.

20:00 -- 17:30 Make Lucas, miss NU, foul NU, misshandled pass Green, foul Lucas.. It's lamost a palindrome. Green gets lazy on defense and gives up a traditional 3 point play. Green makes up for it on the other end with a rebound and put back. Then, Green baits Mirkovich into his 3rd foul on the other end. Good stretch for Green.

17:30 -- 15:30 Roe forces a turnover on Shurna who can't shake Roe with his bad ankle. FINALLY! A Summers sighting. Tie game! And another NU turnover as a secondary ball handler steps out of bounds. Where is Crawford today? Lucious is out of control and not really contributing positively at all today. Thompson goes by Lucious for a layup and follows it with a pass to the 43rd row (rather than Roe) on the other end. I'm wondering why Lucious is still on the floor. Lucas hits 2 free throws to tie it up 28 all.

15:30 -- 12:40 Roe makes 1 of 2 from the line to take a 1 pt lead. MSU decided to execute a 4-2 advantage fast break. You guessed it, no points and now we are going the other way. This is THE worst executing fast break team in the history of basketball. Its really not even close.

12:40 -- 8:30 Crawford shows up on cue to abuse Thornton. Lucious shows up on cue to throw a terrible lob to...someone...I guess Payne. Crawford is hitting now. Awesome. Back to back plays by Nix and Roe tie it back up. By the way, that is the Roe Izzo expected when he turned down N. Carolina for MSU. LUCAS for 3! This is more like it. Then Thompson hits a long, tough, guarded 3.

This used to look like a good team that showed minutes of sloppiness and stupidity. Now it is a stupid sloppy team that shows minutes of good play from time to time. This team is, honestly, bad.

Nix is a tough matchup 6+ feet from the basket for big men because he can really move his feet. However, inside he really gets jammed up in tight space. MSU will be shooting from here on out, as NU is over the foul limit. You decide if that is good or bad.

8:30 -- 6:00 Crawford is coming alive and really hurting Appling. But LUCAS answers with what we've seen in the past, a drive and finish. It could be important down the stretch that both Summers and Lucas have 3 fouls already, with 8+ minutes to go. Right on command, as I yell at Green "he can't guard you -- go by him!" Green drives and is fouled. He hits both free throws to tie the game again, this time at 44.

Cobb hits a 3 for NU. If you ask "Cobb who?" I'll answer: Carl Cobb. That's my guess at least. It could be Curtis or Curtain for all I know.

Green picks up his 4th foul. That is big. That means Sherman and Nix are going to have to produce on both ends, mostly not giving up easy shots and picking up some rebounds to close out defensive possessions.

6:00 -- 3:30 FINALLY! A great entry pass to Nix from Lucious. Nix even cooperates and catches the pass and makes the shot. Then Nix loses his man, again, on defense. Roe reverts to Roe circa 2 weeks ago by going over the back on a rebound he had no chance at getting. Shurna has one of the ugliest shots in the history of shots. Having to watch it from the free throw line, with no other movement or noise, is disgusting. Mateen Cleaves' jumpshot is museum worthy art in comparison.

3:30 -- 1:40 Roe has really found his place on defense. He just forced a shot clock violation on a big game, a serious change of pace from Shurna. Appling hits a 3 and then gets picked off giving Crawford another layup. Miss by Lucas, BIG rebound by Roe, timeout Izzo.

1:40 -- :25 BAD possession by MSU ending in a BAD shot by Appling. Lucas ends up on Crawford, who again posts up the smaller MSU guard, travels (no call) and banks a fall away. 3 point lead NU. MSU has no offense against this zone. Green isolates out of the timeout and drives, drawing the foul. He has to hit both. 1 up 1 down. The 2nd is good.

:25 -- NU is up 3 w/ Green at the line. It is about stops and scoring quickly. Playing excellent defense all day Roe intentionally fouls, committing only his 2nd of the day. 1 make, 1 miss, rebound MSU! Green gets his own rebound and heads back to the line. 1st one...makes! 11 seconds and we ARE TIED!

TRAVEL NU! MSU ball with 2.7 seconds to go and the whole floor to cover. Just don't throw it away and don't commit an offensive foul. Andddd...missed 3. Overtime.

OT

Green continues to hit free throws. Crawford is crushing MSU right now, and really, is NU's best player. Crawford hit a long 3 off a high screen. Great challenge by Roe but Shurna hits again. NU by 3. Which also means a zone by NU on the other end. MSU misses again.

ROE AGAIN causes a travel in the post. He is so locked in on defense. Appling for 3! Where is summers? Doesn't matter. Appling with 17 pts and a great box out on the other end leading to a Crawford foul. He's got a real chance to be special given his size. MSU often gets good but undersized guards (Lucas, Cleaves, Neitzel) but Appling is longer. He can, with a little more weight, play at the next level as a scoring point guard.

Up 2 and with the ball, Izzo wants a timeout. I don't blame him. You have to get something on this possession. I would go inside and force the defense to collapse, then kick back out. Instead Lucas throws up an early 3. NU rebound.

ROE FORCES ANOTHER AIR BALL! Unreal. Shurna couldn't find an inch of daylight. Air ball, shot clock violation, MSU ball with 10 seconds to go. Just control the ball and hit free throws.

Lucious got the ball and was fouled almost immediately. Misses the 1st. Hits the 2nd. 8 seconds to go. Draymond steps out on the perimeter, pokes at the ball and fouls out of the game. Bad foul by the wrong guy.

Nix rebounds the NU miss and is fouled immediately. He hits a free throw that runs through the rafters, scrapes the banners, and goes in. He misses the 2nd. You decide if it was on purpose.

MSU wins by 4, in OT, and looks terrible for 90% of the game. Thank the IPA for the second half resurgence. As always, the IPA fund is taking donations.

* Unless you are um.

** Dictionary definition of regress.

COME TA PENN STAAATE!

Basketball preview, Joe Pa edition.

Michigan State travels to Penn State today to play Talor Battle and the Nittany Talor Battles. The only catch is, this season, he has more of a supporting cast. Despite the team actually being much better on paper this year than last, PSU has been mosty abysmal. Although they've lost to some pretty good teams (@Maryland, @ Va Tech, @ Miss, Home to Purdue) you can't lose to Maine at home by 10. The same Maine that has lost to Hartford (the insurance company?) Columbia, Delaware State, Brown and Quinnipiac. That Maine.

The Lions are 8-6 (1-2) and rank, according to ESPN, 239th in points per game, 246th in rebounds per game, 240th in assists per game and 228th in field goal percentage.

Battle is going to shoot, early and often, from near and far. Frazier is averaging about 5 assists per game to only 2 turnovers. Brooks is solid and is probably one of the more versatile players in the conference.

PSU's biggest problem is that Battle is averaging almost 37 minutes per game and Brooks is averaging almost 32. This early in the season you can get away with that. Unfortunately, for them, to burn up your two best players early you would hope to have a decent record. This team had hopes of making the NCAA tournament. I don't see how that happens w/out winning the B10 tournament.

Battle doesn't play a lot of defense (1.6 fouls per game). I think the key to this game is forcing him to play on both ends. MSU got Brooks in foul trouble last February and took him almost entirely out of the game. Beyond Battle and Brooks, PSU big man Jones (6'10" 245lbs) is solid but isn't a real scoring threat outside of 5'. He hasn't attempted a 3 this season and shoots 48% from the charity stripe. He will have a long day with the rotation of Sherman, Nix, Payne and help from Green/Roe. Payne is likely too thin to bang with him, but could really take advantage on the offensive end with far superior athleticism and speed. Nix will see minutes today, lots of minutes.

The real key for PSU could be Jackson (6'7" 210lbs) because of his size. This is the guy Raymar Morgan or Chris Allen would have been guarding. Roe just isn't there yet on perimeter defense and Jackson fits the mold of that tweener size guy that gives MSU fits. He isn't afraid to take a 3 (took 6 against Furman*) and he hits at a decent enough rate that you have to respect it. That worries me. Roe is at his worst on the perimeter, jumping in to jump shooters on pump fakes, arriving too late to challenge and playing matador on a pump fake and drive.

I don't like playing teams like PSU. They have nothing to lose, except a bunch more games, and everything to gain. This is a resume builder for a desperate, very experienced and very undisciplined team. PSU starts and gets significant minutes from 4 seniors. Despite their experience, they take bad shots. They shoot and hit garbage. They play sloppy defense and make poor decisions. They are, somehow, still cocky.

Battle is a tough guy to guard and this is the sort of yawner that MSU typically phones in. I hope Izzo showed them the tape of last year's game that was way too close. I hope Draymond and Payne decide they want to pad the stats today, packing away a few points for lean times (Purdue, Wisconsin). I hope Appling doesn't get hit with cheap fouls (which Battle always draws). I hope Summers doesn't let Brooks get in his head, and Roe and Green play real defense.

Before a prediction, and while I'm talking about him, I have to discuss Green. He is great and I love him for all the reasons everyone else does. He is an enigma. He is smart. He can be a coach on the floor. He is tough to guard. He moves very, very well for his size.

That said, why does everyone ignore his faults? He is constantly out of position on defense. He has the second most turnovers on the team; 2 less than Lucas and 4 more than Lucious. He is the co-captain of the "I haven't considered what you are going to do with this pass once you get it, but It looks tough, so I'm going to try to make it" club. He is reading his own press. He has become a caricature of himself, the guy that makes the unusual play is looking for the most difficult play on the floor to keep that image. He swings for the fences rather than taking the double or triple. Yes, double or triple. He doesn't need to settle for singles because he is that good. But he can't look to make an ESPN highlight reel every time he touches it either. The highlight reel Green should aspire to is in film sessions, for doing the things that Izzo appreciates. Rebound, outlet, defend, be tenacious, be tough, finish. Finish shots, finish possessions and finish games.

The club I mentioned above meets regularly. The motto? I think I saw some daylight between defenders, 25' up the floor, with a teammate on the other end. Better yet? That teammate looks to be Shermanesque (see: ping pong paddles where hands should be) and by the time the pass gets in his area it will be shin high and he'll be in the locker room. Perfect. I think I'll try to make that pass. The result? Two options: 1. it gets intercepted by one of the 3 defenders likely in the area, or 2. the teammate catches the ball and proceeds to step on the endline, charge or travel. It is almost like Lucious and Green think getting the pass there is worth 2 points and they never consider putting their teammates in a position to, you know, actually do something with the ball once they [maybe] catch it. I liken it to throwing a short crossing route to your slot receiver (5'11" 165 lbs) and throwing it 3 feet over his head. You are not thinking about the position you are putting him, and his ribs, in.

Make today closer than it looks on paper:

MSU -- 70

PSU --- 66

*Who** plays Furman, Lehigh, St Joseph, Fairfield***, Central Connecticut, Mt St Mary's, Columbia, Brown, Quinnipiac and Maine? Who plays those teams and has an 8-6 record??

**The answer is Penn State and, usually, Syracuse.

***Fairfield Inn? What, did you post up Rosy and the rest of the cleaning staff?