Sunday, March 28, 2010

slight backtrack


I should say that Pearl couldn't coach as long as he has, and win as many games as he has, without scrutiny. To that end, there is no evidence to say he cheats. I just get the feel that he is slimy. I mean, you are what you recruit, right? In football it happens almost everywhere. In basketball you don't have players charged with firearms and drug possession without there being some indication that, hmm, maybe this guy is a problem. Basketball teams have too few players to not know what is going on. Unless, of course, you cover your eyes.
Also, you can still have fun while coaching at a high profile program. That fun should probably not include taking photos while draped across the laps of coeds 1/3 your age. Larry Eustachy thinks this is Class-E.

Same goes for Prince. In postgame comments TN's Prince talked trash to Ohio State's Evan Turner about a no call late in the game. Turner got blocked and the no call was correct. Prince didn't need to elaborate, first because he is 1/10th the player Turner is. Second because it wasn't necessary. You won, focus on the next game. Instead, basically, he invited Turner to shut up and watch the rest on the season from the couch. Classy, just like your coach.

Here is a nice little piece lifted from ESPN's Forde:

"One of the reasons we came to Tennessee is to be in a position like this," point guard Bobby Maze said. "It's not a surprise that we don't get overwhelmed by it. We believe that we are supposed to be here and we have very high expectations of ourselves.

"Some people have us as an underdog, and to us it's a joke. It drives us even more to succeed. Every game we've played in the tournament we have been picked to lose. That's funny."

"Actually, Bobby, nobody picked No. 14 seed Ohio to beat Tennessee. And very few people picked No. 11 seed San Diego State. So there's a reality check for you."

I also think that Chism, while a great player, is a headcase. If he comes out hot TN could roll. If he gets bumped, misses some shots, or gets in foul trouble early he could flip and take himself out of the game. If Chism goes down in flames so does TN. Or as he might so eloquently put it, in the 3rd person, "If Chism gets hot they better watch out, cause Chism and Chism's headband are the best 1-2 combo in the country."

Saturday, March 27, 2010

MSU vs TN

Somehow, someway, these Spartans come up with shots, stops, plays, whatever it takes to win.

Forget that they can't finish a 3 on 1 breakaway.

Forget that their free throw shooting is mediocre at best.

Forget that no one is healthy enough to play at 100%.

Its March. Beware the Izzo's of March. Early April, too, if you please.


I do not like Bruce Pearl. I do not like Mike Kryzekiskeksssceeeiiski either. However, I respect what coach k has done. I do not respect Bruce Pearl. I think he, like Steve Alford, is a loser. In fact, I think Pearl is a hybrid of every bad coaching quality I can think of.

I watched earlier this year, during a preseason tournament, when the Vols played Purdue. I have a strong dislike for coaches that cannot control themselves and end up talking trash to players. Grow up. I don't want to hear about competitiveness or any of that crap. You don't trash talk 18-20 year olds if you are a grown man. If you can't be above that you have no business coaching. In fact, I don't really know what you are qualified to do for a living with that skill set. It likely involves scooping food at prison cafeterias.

Also, Bruce Pearl is greasy. I have no doubt he sits in living rooms talking trash about other coaches and programs. I would not be surprised in the least to find out he lies, cheats, or does whatever it takes to keep players eligible. The funny part? He turned in his own program in the past. I can't say for sure. He just gives that feel.

Finally, he has Steve Fisher type coaching skills. Those being: 1. recruit, 2. sit and watch, 3. sweat. Korie Lucious has been described as having "a little playground" to his game. Imagine 5 players on the floor at once with "a lot of playground." Think the fab five. No doubt skilled. Coached? Less likely. Just as likely to come out and drop 50 in a half on 15 3's as they are to jack up 50 shots and make 2. Beat Kentucky and lose to Georgia. Sneak past DePaul.

No doubt they have length and talent. Scariest of all, their length can put it on the floor. They trap and are athletic. Even at full strength this team would give MSU fits. Without lucas this is a tough, tough draw. The hope has to be that Raymar takes care of the ball, Allen is healthier, and Tenn is cold from the floor.

My best guess:

MSU 69
TN 68

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

MSU vs UNI

I watched Norther Iowa play earlier this year and thought "hmm, this team is pretty good." I did not, however, think "hmm, this team will probably take out a #1 seed in the tournament."

Losing Kalin Lucas is obviously a big, big hit. Most often I would make the quality argument, in terms of the impact of losing Lucas, over the quantity. Not this time.

Losing Lucas at the same time as Allen is limited hurts MSU severly. The biggest reason is not Luscious' offense production or ability to implode for 5 turnovers in 45 seconds. The biggest reason is Korie can't stay in front of anyone on defense and CANNOT guard anyone on the break or in the post. If he played enough minutes he would have fouled out of every game this year.

What would I do if I was UNI? Post up, drive on, isolate, and abuse Luscious on defense. If he gets in foul trouble and Allen can't play 30 minutes or more the game is simply over. If he isn't in foul trouble he has either 1. been possessed by the ghost of a player who can play defense, or 2. is stepping aside and giving up layups.

The other tricky thing about the shuffle of positions? Raymar is taken out of the flow. He is not a perimeter player and still doesn't put the ball on the floor well in the half court. With Raymar and Green moved further out to the perimeter on offense, and Roe ailing, rebounding could take a HUGE hit. This UNI is not small. They hit free throws. They appear to be about 7 deep without much fall off. Not that Kansas would have been any better, but don't think a limited MSU can still run this team off the floor. It won't happen.

Keebler and Thornton have to play 25 combined minutes to have a chance. I don't worry about the defense so much as the offense. Keebler and Thornton, as on the ball defenders, are at least as good as Luscious. Both are longer and stronger than Luscious. I worry about the offensive end. We cannot run an offense from 35 feet out with our back to the basket. That is what Keebler tends to do.

I still like MSU in a low scoring game. Don't expect a 42 point half. Make it:

MSU - 67
UNI - 62

Sunday, March 21, 2010

MSU vs Maryland

I've learned that with this team it is best to not make predictions. I do think it will be a tough game with Maryland as they are experienced and have a very talented and big guard.

Without a healthy Allen to guard him (yeah, I did just say that) I don't think anyone else is capable of staying in front of him and keeping him from posting up. Summers is tall enough to take him in the post but can't seem to move his feet. Raymar would be the next best choice but can't D him on a 3 ball. Lucas is too small. Lucious is both too small and, inexplicably, unable to stay in front of anyone off the dribble.

I do like Draymond and Roe's potential to run the offensive game from the free throw line so long as the wings are hitting and the layups are falling. I HATE Raymar taking 16' shots. I hate it. It does not work in this system unless, or course, he never misses. That is unlikely and leaves us with no one down low to rebound and likely a long rebound coming off for a quick outlet and bucket the other way.

I've heard it argued both ways with the Kansas loss; you don't want to play that scrappy N.Iowa team and thank God Kansas is out. Yes, N.Iowa can hit you inside and out. Yes, they play some defense. Overall? Give me a break. Any coach in the country would be glad to play N.Iowa with 6 players rather than playing Kansas. Any argument to the contrary is nonsense.

If you get bored, have a computer, and a fast connection check this out. Gus Johnson on tap. Great for creating your own game commentary, answering phone calls, or just annoying anyone else in the room.

Steve Alford is a loser. He was a loser in the BigTen and now, although he was a generous 3 seed, he is a loser out west. You can't change ugly, and he's ugly.

Another good read, if you have the time. Just goes to show we don't know how good we have it here.

I liked MSU's chances coming into the weekend. However, with the Allen and Lucas injuries and considering Roe's lingering injuries, I am more than concerned. Allen and Summers are going to have to hit 3's, Sherman, Nix, Green, and Roe are going to have to finish around the basket, and Morgan HAS to shown up for 40 minutes for MSU to have a chance. This one could be in the high 70's to mid 80's. In a close game I have to say I question MSU's chances to pull it out if Allen can't play and Lucas is less than 90%. Oh, and of course, everyone has to hit freethrows.

bold prediction:

MSU - 78
MD - 72

Sunday, March 7, 2010

MSU umm

Today is, unlike most games against the skunkbears, meaningful. Consider the implications.

1. Senior night for a player that has been confusing, dominant at times, and like others before him -- quite unappreciated. Paul Davis comes to mind. A guy that just went to work, NEVER caused drama* and has career stats any incoming freshman would dream of. Raymar wants this win. His teamates -- most at least -- want it for him just as badly. No one wants it more than Izzo, for the program of course, but mostly for Raymar.

2. This is michigan. You can't lose this game. Ummm hasn't won at the Bres since 1997, hasn't really been close in most of those games, and isn't a contender this year. This would be a BAD loss headin into seeding. And...

3. A win means a piece of the B11 Championship. Banners are Izzo's "footprints."

4. You cannot lose another game at home. The Breslin is dangerously close to be an easy win. And don't blame the fans. In the osu and purdue losses the fans brought plenty of noise and distraction. The players were flat and mentally absent. Another home loss would also set the wrong tone heading into the post season.

5. This should be a scrimmgae to clean up bad habits against a zone defense and 3 point shooting. You will see both in the tourney. Make it far enough and you will likely see Nova or Cuse, which use both heavily. 3 point shooting is funny because a hot team can hit despite the best defense ever and a bad shooting night can make terrible defense look deceivingly good, on paper. Quirky. Bad rotation by the bigs has really been the biggest problem. Against Wisconsin, Purdue, and OSU the bigs stepped out early and gave up layups. Late in the same games they sagged too far and gave up 3's on bad rotation. It will be up to Summers, Roe, Green, and Morgan to find that balance and cut off passing lanes to make a good defense great.

A few observations:

- I HATE Morgan taking long 2's and 3's. First, he is a great rebounder and boxes out consistently. When he is shooting away from the basket there is about a 2% chance we are getting that rebound. Second, it usually comes at the expense of a drive against a slower post player (rarely over a guard). Use your advantages. I get that you should be a jump shooter to play at the next level. You aren't yet. This team doesn't need you to be.

- Teams allow Lucious to get in the lane because he is too small to finish in traffic and doens't have a floater. He realizes this, too late, nightly when he gets trapped down low in the forest and ends up traveling, throwing a terrible pass, or throwing up some garbage. Don't get past your man for the sake of getting by him. Have a plan and a purpose.

- Why aren't we throwing 4-5 lobs per game? Summers isn't the only player that can take a lob. In a pinch, against man, Allen could and has. Roe and Morgan are, in my mind, ideal candidates. Green and Nix can use their bodies to get a man fronting them and then a quick lob would mean a layup. Especially against a zone when there is rotation to the corner. A quick skip pass to the point and an immediate lob to the opposite block would be almost automatic.

- This team, especially its stars, have to get better from the line. Morgan, Lucas, and Summers have been terrible. You can't win that way. This is especially true for a team that misses as many laypus and short jumpers as MSU has recently. It seems as though no one can finish. ESPECIALLY on a fast break. Again, I've never seen a team squander so many fast breaks, with numbers, so consistenly.

- Some of the passes in the last few games that looked terrible were, at least 50%, Summers fault. Lucious and Lucas both have throw a pass out of a trap or to a space hoping that Summers would do the logical thing; try to get open. Instead Summers cuts away from the pass to a space on the floor where 1. no pass could not get to him, and 2. another defender is better able to guard two people without moving. It is basic. Figure it out.

Um is not that bad. They have players to win any game on any given night, at least this year, as college basketball has about 8-12 teams that could win it all. There is no clear head and shoulders team this year. That said, limiting umm to one shot per possession and -- regardless of turnovers -- making each real opportunity count means a win. Think in terms of hockey, shots versus scoring chances. A shot in hockey is not necessarily a scoring chance. Take advantage of scoring chances and let backcourt and loose ball turnovers go. That means finishing on layups, open shots, and free throws. Catch the routine pass. Don't throw the lazy, readable pass.** Wide open on a 3? Don't travel. Finish the dunk.*** Cut to the open space, not to a space where a pass can neither get to you or where you let one defender cover two people.****


MSU -- 71
umm -- 64




* Other than the internal drama necessary to create the most funny faces since Jim Carey.
** Summers
*** Summers
****SUMMERS