MSU vs UNI

I watched Norther Iowa play earlier this year and thought "hmm, this team is pretty good." I did not, however, think "hmm, this team will probably take out a #1 seed in the tournament."

Losing Kalin Lucas is obviously a big, big hit. Most often I would make the quality argument, in terms of the impact of losing Lucas, over the quantity. Not this time.

Losing Lucas at the same time as Allen is limited hurts MSU severly. The biggest reason is not Luscious' offense production or ability to implode for 5 turnovers in 45 seconds. The biggest reason is Korie can't stay in front of anyone on defense and CANNOT guard anyone on the break or in the post. If he played enough minutes he would have fouled out of every game this year.

What would I do if I was UNI? Post up, drive on, isolate, and abuse Luscious on defense. If he gets in foul trouble and Allen can't play 30 minutes or more the game is simply over. If he isn't in foul trouble he has either 1. been possessed by the ghost of a player who can play defense, or 2. is stepping aside and giving up layups.

The other tricky thing about the shuffle of positions? Raymar is taken out of the flow. He is not a perimeter player and still doesn't put the ball on the floor well in the half court. With Raymar and Green moved further out to the perimeter on offense, and Roe ailing, rebounding could take a HUGE hit. This UNI is not small. They hit free throws. They appear to be about 7 deep without much fall off. Not that Kansas would have been any better, but don't think a limited MSU can still run this team off the floor. It won't happen.

Keebler and Thornton have to play 25 combined minutes to have a chance. I don't worry about the defense so much as the offense. Keebler and Thornton, as on the ball defenders, are at least as good as Luscious. Both are longer and stronger than Luscious. I worry about the offensive end. We cannot run an offense from 35 feet out with our back to the basket. That is what Keebler tends to do.

I still like MSU in a low scoring game. Don't expect a 42 point half. Make it:

MSU - 67
UNI - 62