Lucas looks pretty good. He doesn't look as quick, in the open floor, but appears to be faster from the endline (outlet) to the offensive set (3 point range). His shot looks very smooth and he looks very, very smart on the attack. For example: In the same game he got past his man and went up and under (with the foul), got past his man and pulled up for a floater in the middle of the lane, pulled up for a long jumper off the dribble, and hit a three. He's taking what the defense gives, and doing it very well.
Roe looks healthy but not aggressive. I hope he finds a reason to get angry. If healthy he might be a very tough matchup guy for a 3/4. Also, if he improves his footwork, he will have the toughest challenges on defense, including: Jon Leuer (WI), Mike Davis (Ill), Maurice Creek (IN), Diebler/Buford (OSU), and others. The tweeners that used to be guarded by Allen and Morgan will now fall on Roe, Kebler, and sometimes Green. Roe will get the most difficult, the mobile, rangy, and physical.
Green is looking like Green. He blocked a 3 from the point, pick it out of the air and went end to end for a dunk last game. He had plenty of blocks and defended the EMU player with 33 points. That sounds bad, but the guy got a lot of junk calls and shot the ball 28 times. Green blocked at least 3 shots and stayed scrappy.
I still think Summers floats too much. He doesn't have any aggression. He will hit 3 shots and then do nothing for 12 minutes. That can't happen if this team wants to go from good to great.
Adreian Payne is a beast. If he stays 2 years he will be the most athletic player in the big 10. He will be MSU's first top 5 pick since Magic. If he stays 3 years he will have at least 1 triple double.
Keith Appling is a very, very good defender. He moves his feet as well or better than any on the ball defender on this team. I would not be surprised, if he gets enough minutes, for Appling to end the season on the all defensive team. He can also shoot and handle the ball very well. He isn't very tall, but he's strong for a true freshman and seems to like contact. Finally, he explodes. Often a point guard on a breakaway, especially as a freshman in his first game, will take a layup. Don't take a change missing a dunk, don't make coach angry. Not Appling. He can flat out jump. And it happens fast. So on the break he, without hesitation, goes up two handed and throws down with ease. I like this kid. He brings that swagger and athleticism that MSU often misses out on. If he learns to play in the system but keeps that individuality (ability to improvise, smartly and selectively) he could be a very good player by mid season.
Garrick Sherman is looking good. He's a little too robotic, but is rebounding well and finishing consistently. I worry about the same things I saw from Suton; at half court he decides that he is going to do a drop step, spin, ball fake, hook. It looks as if, "situation be damned, this is the move I decided to use. I may have decided last Wednesday."
Nix looks ok, not great. His weight is down and endurance is up. His free throw shooting is much improved, if not on the stat sheet at least to the eye test.
Austin Thornton will play this year. He looks very confident, very comfortable, and is taking great shots. His defense is solid and his rebounding is off the charts. The latter alone will get him 5-6 minutes per game. Situations (fouls, poor play of others, needing a good free throw shooter, teams playing 4 guards or shooting all 3's) will get him 3-4 more. A hot hand could determine if he gets more than 12 minutes per game.
When Kebler is healthy he will get minutes here and there. I would not be surprised to see him get plenty of play in the tougher games, including guarding (at least for 3-4 minutes) McAmey and E'Twan Moore. He is also confident against teams that pressure.
Lucious will get some minutes, make some big plays, but may be the odd man out this season with Appling being more explosive and Thornton/Kebler being longer defensive options. Against full court pressure teams and when/if Appling starts playing like a freshman, then Lucious may get a chance to play a bigger role.
Ianni will be a non factor. He has size (including a gut) but cannot move his feet well enough to get serious minutes except in an emergency.
Gauna will redshirt. There is just too much depth of size to waste him this year.
Unless Byrd heals fast (like, 2 days ago) he will redshirt, too. I wish that weren't the case because another knockdown 3 point shooter would be great for this team, considering Lucas/Appling/Lucious/Draymond's ability to get by their defenders to kick out.
The team is talented enough to be a 1 seed lock. I don't know that they will be, though. Purdue losing Hummel helps the conference title run. However, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Ohio State, and Indiana will all be very difficult wins. Only Iowa is a gimme, and Michigan could rise up and win with hot shooting and some favorable calls. Ohio State has a backloaded schedule and will be the deciding factor, since they play MSU only once (at OSU).
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