League Preview

I can't recall a season when I knew less about each B10 team than this year. Juice is gone. Kafka is gone. Clark is gone. Michigan's secondary is gone, to the extent it ever existed.

Nor can I remember a B10 season with more close and bizarre finishes than last year. Teams like Indiana, MSU, and Purdue can attest to the fact that 10 plays or less can swing a season 5 games one way or the other. There isn't a lot of room for error.

With that said, here is my best, errors and all.

Illinois - Alphabetically speaking, Illinois is first. (how many leagues can say their first team alpha wise starts with I or later in the alphabet?*) I have no idea what Illinois, or Zook, can pull off this year. I can tell you that if Zookie doesn't win some games AND win a bowl game, he's gone. Illinois does not have many seniors, but offensively, there is experience at key positions. That would not include QB. I see a .500 season for Illinois with a late push for a bowl game. The early and mid schedule looks like murderers row. Especially the run of hosting OSU, followed by at Penn State and at MSU, then back home for a game with sleeper Indiana. I see 6-6 and a potential bowl bid. I see a Zookless 2011.

Indiana - I am glad IU is off the MSU schedule. The IU defense is not very good, and the running game is just ehh, but the passing game is scary. Indiana will put up a few points this year and, given some luck, could win 8 games. Indiana lost all the close ones last year but should take advantage of that pain as they return a lot of starters. The team is especially experienced in the defensive secondary, with a half dozen senior corners, linebackers, and safeties. Prediction: the stadium will not come anywhere near selling out until mid season. However, the cupcake non conference and somewhat favorable early B10 schedule could allow them to build momentum and steal a big conference win. 7-5 and a bowl loss.

Iowa - Stanzi is pretty impressive, but it will be interesting to see what happens with a little RB trouble and his favorite safety valve, TE Moeaki, gone. There is plenty of depth at RB but it could take a minute to sort out. There is experience at WR as well, so Stanzi should improve again this year. The defense was great last year and should be stout again this year, especially if the running game can run up the time of possession. 7-5 with some very close losses, plus a bowl game win.

Michigan - Michigan, Michigan, Michigan. I'm almost sad that little richard won't be around next year. Michigan's defense will be horrendous. Graham is gone. Good luck replacing him. The defensive secondary is gone, literally. Attrition, early outs, injuries, and felonies have hit the secondary hard. As soon as the man defense gets burned deep they will go zone. Then teams will pound the ball for more rushing yards than Bo gave up in a decade. The semi good news is the offense should be a lot better. Robinson will get most of the PT under center (or more likely out of the gun) early. He is considering tying his shoes this year, too. We'll watch for updates. The offense will be sporadic, appearing to be unstoppable at times, and then imploding without reason. Time of possession will appear manic from game to game, with balanced offensive teams dominating a Michigan team playing constant catch up. The schedule is brutal and will likely result in a 0-2 start, a mid season glimmer of hope for bowl eligibility, and a crushing defeat by OSU to deny any hope of a little caesars bowl game appearance. 5-7 finish. Bowl = No. Violations = Yes. Recruiting = screwed. Richard = packing.

Michigan State - In case you haven't heard: the 2009 season was a disappointment, there was a fight at a frat party, and the 2010 schedule is so easy MSU should win a national championship. Sports writers get paid to have original thoughts, from what I'm told. MSU will be improved in the secondary, significantly, but still not as good as I expect to see next season. The real talent at corner is young and the team still lacks a good safety, let alone depth at safety. The pass rush was actually pretty good last season but the secondary will benefit even more from a better pass rush this year. There are 1.5 billion quality linebackers, and 2.5 billion linebacker recruits in the pipeline. The pass rush should be improved and benefit from the new scheme (mixed use of the 3-4). There is nothing for opposing offenses to scout, yet. MSU does not leave the state until October 23, and even then its only a trip to the SAT center of the universe in greater Chicago. Penn State and Iowa on the road are the biggest road challenges and are not even in consecutive weeks. ND will be better this year, but its a night home game on national tv with a young ND QB. The tight losses will be flipped to tight wins if the kicking game gets sorted out. This team has a real shot at being 7-0 before playing a road game (which I predict could be followed by 2 quick losses). 9-3 with a bowl win over the soon to be newest B10 member, Nebraska, on New Year's Day.**

Minnesota - Minnesota is not a good team. In 2009 they couldn't run or pass the ball consistently, partly because of injuries but mostly because, well, beyond a few starters there wasn't a whole lot of talent. The early schedule is soft and could allow MN to sort things out, get rolling, and find some talent on that roster. Overall the team is very young, but the secondary should be a strength. Weber is solid, when healthy, and usually makes good decisions in the red zone. Finish: 5-7 with no real shot at a bowl game already evident by late October.

Northwestern - I really don't know what to think about NW. I would like to say, despite not having a running game at all, the passing game is at least solid. But Kafka is gone. Besides being their accurate and prolific passer and captain, he was the second leading rusher. Ouch. The schedule is not particularly easy and includes a couple of road games early (who goes TO Rice?) The defense was pretty good in 2009 and should be at least as good in 2010. So much depends on the offense for NW , and as a result, the QB. With that in question until proven otherwise, I see this as a rebuilding year with about 4 games up in the air. Finish: 5-7.

Ohio State - I recently heard the OSU defensive line coach say he thought this might be the best defensive front in OSU's history. That does not bode well for the B10, unless, of course, you are MSU or NW. The non-conference schedule is so so, with a somewhat improved Miami (in Columbus) and a team in name (Marshall) if not talent. Marshall didn't win a game of note last year and will actually be worse this year. Two games stand out to me for OSU in what could honestly be a national championship appearance: a 7pm kickoff in mid October at Wisconsin and Nov 20 at Iowa, kick TBD (I would guess they push for a 7pm kickoff). Also, notwithstanding the criticism of Minny above, the October 30 7pm kickoff at Minnesota is a trap game. Pryor still hasn't proven that he can be accurate for an entire game when the secondary is experienced, and OSU plays a close game every year with a far inferior team. Plus, the game comes the week before a stretch that goes Penn State, @ Iowa, Michigan. Push comes to shove? I can't pick a B10 team to beat OSU this year. Not one.*** Prediction: 12-0 + a bowl win = a national championship.****

Penn State - Clark is gone but Royster's back. There are questions at QB but also a lot of talent. The solid running game and defense will make the QB less important this year than next, when both are significantly weaker. At Alabama in week 2 is a tough, tough start for a new QB. Youngstown State, Kent State, and Temple round out the non conference. The B10 schedule is balanced and looks like about 8-4 plus a bowl loss.

Purdue - Purdue has been the same team for about 4 years. Not very good, not very bad, and a lot of close losses. It seems like Purdue is due a few close wins this year. They've been paying the premiums for a while now, and I think they may make a claim or two finally, in 2010. If they do, however, it is more likely to be the result of an improved defense than maintaining last year's offensive achievements. I'm not saying the QB can't succeed, but moving games from close losses to close wins does not happen with an unproven QB. Elliot is gone. Bolden is back and is a solid, tough RB. The schedule starts fairly easy but finishes pretty hard, including @OSU, @Ill, Wisc, UM, @MSU and a rivarly game against IU over the last 6. With some favorable bounces, accurate kicking and at least so-so QBing Purdue could be over .500. Make it: 7-5 with a bowl loss to a MAC team.

Wisconsin - I just can't buy that Wisc will be as good as everyone seems to think. They will be boring and good, but I can't see great. I still see them as a 50/50 proposition in most games. Tolzien is accurate and likes his TE. His best 2 TE's are gone, so we'll see how he uses the RB's and WR's. Clay runs hard. He has break away speed, too. I really don't know what else to say about WI. The non-conference is more difficult than average, but not too hard. I see an 8-4 finish and a bowl game. They could win or lose it.

* stop looking, the answer is 1 is D1, and its the Missouri Valley.
** tell me that isn't a bold, detailed prediction.
*** unless you are giving me points and paying out 10:1. Then we can talk.
**** over...hmm...Arkansas? Arizona? Too many QB questions at the traditional powers.

Recruiting

I know, just last week I said that I was not in to the recruiting thing. That is for nerds. Well, I'm not in to memorizing kids stats and living and dying with each rumor or verbal commit. I do, however, keep abreast of some things. Mostly I follow the in state kids. If nothing else, where the 4 and 5 star kids (from Michigan) go is an indicator of where the programs are heading.

The fact that MSU is not only competing but regularly getting the best kids is very, very nice. I am especially excited to get the best linebacker in the state for the third straight year. You could make the argument that MSU got the 2 best linebackers in the state in 2010. When a kid knows there is already depth and talent at MSU at his position and still commits that is a good sign. He is a competitor and likes what he's seen. Better yet? He's from Detroit. As little as 3 years ago such a get would have been considered a crime, an absolute theft. Now we call it Wednesday afternoon.

I was equally upset to see super recruit Justice Hayes (grand blanc) choose ND. I can understand, with the stable of MSU backs and the chance to play for a team sure to make some noise in coming years under Kelly. It hurts a little, though.

I also LOVE the story coming out of Gary, IN. A 5 star recruit (6'6", 210) small forward (ala Alan Anderson -- not blazing speed but deceptive with some handles and a lanky game for his height) verballed for 2011. His recruiting bio on espn lists Indiana, Marquette, Purdue, Georgetown, and UCLA. Well, looks like MSU should have been somewhere on that list. ESPN puts him at the 14th best player in the country regardless of position, #4 small forward (must be a deep SF class!).

Oh, yeah. Chris Allen is gone. No more giraffe on roller skates analogies. In all fairness his defensive footwork and attention went from about -4 to 100 (on a scale of who am I guarding? to B+ level Bobby Knight defensive camp counselor). He also seemed to be a little more turned on than turned off in terms of being aggressive with the ball. He was becoming fearless with the ball and quite obviously had no memory.

The bad: I'm fairly certain he is exactly as smart as he sounds/looks/acts/showed himself to be. Also, Izzo is fiercely loyal to his players. You will learn lessons and take your lumps, but he rarely (has he ever?) gives up on anyone. I don't think Izzo has given up on Allen, but he has determined that what Allen needs cannot be provided in East Lansing. There is no doubt in my mind that Chris will get his stuff together, to some degree, and in 15 years he will be at some sort of MSU event singing Izzo's praises, thank coach for forcing him to grow up.

B11(12?) Basketball Update

Yeah yeah yeah, its football season. I have a noteworthy basketball update, however.

Northwestern forward Kevin Coble will not return to the basketball team but will instead focus on academics. Coble went down early last season to injury which quickly deflated preseason expectations. This is a serious blow going forward for a team on the cusp of making the NCAA tournament for the first time in 1.5X10^3 years.*

I look for a fairly talented but young NW team to slide down a few projected slots this season as a result. Coble wasn't necessarily pretty to watch, but he was legit. Which really makes me wonder. I mean, I think he could have played professionally somewhere.



*I'll have my NW grads check the accuracy of that estimate

Summer Ponderings

Summer is great, don't get me wrong. I love the weather, the baseball, grilling and the lake. The 4th of July rivals any holiday in my book. Seasonal beers? Off the charts.

But for college sports fans (other than baseball) it is a real downtime. The only real exception is reserved for recruiting nerds. Freaks that follow star ratings and the personal lives of otherwise normal 15, 16, and 17 year old boys love this time of year. I can't get into it.

I will say this about recruiting: I like Dantonio's straight forward approach and analysis of high school talent. Kirk Cousins? He was a throw in. Keshawn Martin? He was a throw in too. MSU has more depth at running back and tight end since the late 90's and more depth at linebacker than ever. Ever.

You can question the character problems that sprung up last year. That is fair. I genuinely believe that the second chance (that back fired) given to one player was not based on team needs. I think it was 100% an opportunity to give a hard knock kid what could be his last shot at doing something big. It didn't work. That cancer is gone, at least 2 others are gone, too. The players that stayed are scared to death and were never really problems anyways. Their problem was in following, not instigating.

Finally, Brian Kelly has done an excellent job at every stop. He can certainly "coach kids up." However, I have to believe a good part of the success at Cinci was the talent level. 2010 was certainly the most talent Kelly's ever had. Nine (9) Dantonio recruits were drafted by NFL teams between 2009 and 2010, including 2 all time Cinci stat leaders and all americans. The points isn't really to focus on Kelly. He can coach. The point is that Dantonio's analysis and recruiting are solid.

Dantonio's recruiting doesn't include a lot of home runs, but a lot of singles and doubles. Singles and doubles take time to add up. Last year was a let down because the cupboard was, for the first time in a while, somewhat stocked. Despite the talent level the team never really met expectations. This year is big.

Although the lines are less experienced they should be more talented overall. The DB's are better and there is more depth. Special teams will be dicey, with punting being a hopeful A+ and place kicking a complete mystery. Cousins is solid and has a good arm with great leadership. The wide receivers will suprise some people and offer A LOT of opportunity to run multiple looks, including 2 legit wildcat QB's, plenty of arms on the perimeter, and end around speed with Martin. I like this team as well as any in the last 10 years from top to bottom.

It comes down to winning close games. The close games went to the green and white in 2008, winning 9 games including 2 of 3 points or less. The close games went to the opponents in 2009, with MSU losing 3 games by 3 points or less and 2 by 8 points. That means that 5 games were in play in the closing minutes. In that context, 6-6 doesn't look quite as bad. Senior leadership should help answer that problem in 2010. The soft schedule won't hurt, either. (7 home, 4 true road, 1 in Detroit, no OSU)

slight backtrack

I should say that Pearl couldn't coach as long as he has, and win as many games as he has, without scrutiny. To that end, there is no evidence to say he cheats. I just get the feel that he is slimy. I mean, you are what you recruit, right? In football it happens almost everywhere. In basketball you don't have players charged with firearms and drug possession without there being some indication that, hmm, maybe this guy is a problem. Basketball teams have too few players to not know what is going on. Unless, of course, you cover your eyes.

Also, you can still have fun while coaching at a high profile program. That fun should probably not include taking photos while draped across the laps of coeds 1/3 your age. Larry Eustachy thinks this is Class-E.

Same goes for Prince. In postgame comments TN's Prince talked trash to Ohio State's Evan Turner about a no call late in the game. Turner got blocked and the no call was correct. Prince didn't need to elaborate, first because he is 1/10th the player Turner is. Second because it wasn't necessary. You won, focus on the next game. Instead, basically, he invited Turner to shut up and watch the rest on the season from the couch. Classy, just like your coach.

Here is a nice little piece lifted from ESPN's Forde:

"One of the reasons we came to Tennessee is to be in a position like this," point guard Bobby Maze said. "It's not a surprise that we don't get overwhelmed by it. We believe that we are supposed to be here and we have very high expectations of ourselves.

"Some people have us as an underdog, and to us it's a joke. It drives us even more to succeed. Every game we've played in the tournament we have been picked to lose. That's funny."

"Actually, Bobby, nobody picked No. 14 seed Ohio to beat Tennessee. And very few people picked No. 11 seed San Diego State. So there's a reality check for you."

I also think that Chism, while a great player, is a headcase. If he comes out hot TN could roll. If he gets bumped, misses some shots, or gets in foul trouble early he could flip and take himself out of the game. If Chism goes down in flames so does TN. Or as he might so eloquently put it, in the 3rd person, "If Chism gets hot they better watch out, cause Chism and Chism's headband are the best 1-2 combo in the country."

MSU vs TN

Somehow, someway, these Spartans come up with shots, stops, plays, whatever it takes to win.

Forget that they can't finish a 3 on 1 breakaway.

Forget that their free throw shooting is mediocre at best.

Forget that no one is healthy enough to play at 100%.

Its March. Beware the Izzo's of March. Early April, too, if you please.


I do not like Bruce Pearl. I do not like Mike Kryzekiskeksssceeeiiski either. However, I respect what coach k has done. I do not respect Bruce Pearl. I think he, like Steve Alford, is a loser. In fact, I think Pearl is a hybrid of every bad coaching quality I can think of.

I watched earlier this year, during a preseason tournament, when the Vols played Purdue. I have a strong dislike for coaches that cannot control themselves and end up talking trash to players. Grow up. I don't want to hear about competitiveness or any of that crap. You don't trash talk 18-20 year olds if you are a grown man. If you can't be above that you have no business coaching. In fact, I don't really know what you are qualified to do for a living with that skill set. It likely involves scooping food at prison cafeterias.

Also, Bruce Pearl is greasy. I have no doubt he sits in living rooms talking trash about other coaches and programs. I would not be surprised in the least to find out he lies, cheats, or does whatever it takes to keep players eligible. The funny part? He turned in his own program in the past. I can't say for sure. He just gives that feel.

Finally, he has Steve Fisher type coaching skills. Those being: 1. recruit, 2. sit and watch, 3. sweat. Korie Lucious has been described as having "a little playground" to his game. Imagine 5 players on the floor at once with "a lot of playground." Think the fab five. No doubt skilled. Coached? Less likely. Just as likely to come out and drop 50 in a half on 15 3's as they are to jack up 50 shots and make 2. Beat Kentucky and lose to Georgia. Sneak past DePaul.

No doubt they have length and talent. Scariest of all, their length can put it on the floor. They trap and are athletic. Even at full strength this team would give MSU fits. Without lucas this is a tough, tough draw. The hope has to be that Raymar takes care of the ball, Allen is healthier, and Tenn is cold from the floor.

My best guess:

MSU 69
TN 68

MSU vs UNI

I watched Norther Iowa play earlier this year and thought "hmm, this team is pretty good." I did not, however, think "hmm, this team will probably take out a #1 seed in the tournament."

Losing Kalin Lucas is obviously a big, big hit. Most often I would make the quality argument, in terms of the impact of losing Lucas, over the quantity. Not this time.

Losing Lucas at the same time as Allen is limited hurts MSU severly. The biggest reason is not Luscious' offense production or ability to implode for 5 turnovers in 45 seconds. The biggest reason is Korie can't stay in front of anyone on defense and CANNOT guard anyone on the break or in the post. If he played enough minutes he would have fouled out of every game this year.

What would I do if I was UNI? Post up, drive on, isolate, and abuse Luscious on defense. If he gets in foul trouble and Allen can't play 30 minutes or more the game is simply over. If he isn't in foul trouble he has either 1. been possessed by the ghost of a player who can play defense, or 2. is stepping aside and giving up layups.

The other tricky thing about the shuffle of positions? Raymar is taken out of the flow. He is not a perimeter player and still doesn't put the ball on the floor well in the half court. With Raymar and Green moved further out to the perimeter on offense, and Roe ailing, rebounding could take a HUGE hit. This UNI is not small. They hit free throws. They appear to be about 7 deep without much fall off. Not that Kansas would have been any better, but don't think a limited MSU can still run this team off the floor. It won't happen.

Keebler and Thornton have to play 25 combined minutes to have a chance. I don't worry about the defense so much as the offense. Keebler and Thornton, as on the ball defenders, are at least as good as Luscious. Both are longer and stronger than Luscious. I worry about the offensive end. We cannot run an offense from 35 feet out with our back to the basket. That is what Keebler tends to do.

I still like MSU in a low scoring game. Don't expect a 42 point half. Make it:

MSU - 67
UNI - 62