Capital One Bowl

Alabama is a 10 point favorite, and has been ever since the matchup was announced. It is strange for a spread to stay constant for that long. Either money isn't moving or the odds makers are very, very confident. I would guess both.

Think about it; both teams are rather hard to figure. Alabama lost 3 games this season, which makes the matchup against an 11-1 team look lopsided. But, those losses came to S.Carolina, LSU and Auburn (the LSU and Auburn losses by a combined 4 points). Ingram didn't play or was limited for half the season. McElroy was limited or hurt in a number of games, including the 1 point loss to Auburn. So, not too shabby.

MSU won a lot of close games, with trick plays and late comebacks, but lost big on the road to Iowa. Iowa is obviously a lot better than their final record looked and MSU was playing through a lot of unknown (but apparent) injuries on both sides of the ball. So...what does anyone really know about either team?

MSU can win this game. They don't need trick plays, or misdirection or big breaks. The game MSU can win is boring and technically beautiful. It comes down to 3 basics: Don't beat yourself (penalties, drops, fumbles), good play calling, and execution. Sounds obvious, but I really think MSU's best chance to win is just playing smart.

The first is one obvious: penalties kill your own drives, extend the opponent's drives, and negate special teams plays. In a game of inches you have to have positives on every possession. That means scoring, obviously, but it can also be as simple as holding the ball as long as possible and changing field possession on EVERY possession. Keep the other teams offense off the field and, if you have to give it back without scoring, pin them deep.

The second is less obvious, and perhaps the most important. Don't out think yourself and don't be predictable. Too often MSU play calling is so obvious I can tell you what the play will be before the snap. That can workout against a team of lesser talent; here's what I'm planning to do now try to stop me. However, 'Bama is not that kind of opponent. In fact, Alabama is bigger and stronger than MSU where it matters. To negate that speed and size playing calling must be nearly perfect. And I don't mean hitting homeruns. I mean calling the play that gets you 5 yards instead of losing 3. I mean the play that allows you to be in a 3rd and short rather than 3rd and 8+. It means having a shot to make a field goal on 4th down rather than being 4-6 yards out of range based on your 1st, 2nd and 3rd down choices. That will be the difference between MSU

winning and losing. And, again, because it is a game of inches, if play calling goes wrong (and Cousins is continually in 3rd and 11) things could go very bad, very quickly.

The third is pretty obvious. Even if the play calling is perfect players have to execute. Blocking has to be perfect, hand offs have to be clean. Shots down field, when they come, have to lead player that find space rather than hanging. Audibles have to be perfect. Kick coverage and punting have to be smart.

If those things come together MSU can win this game. Alabama can run the ball with 2 great, fast and physical backs. Unfortunately, once you sneak up to support the run game Julio Jones is a legit NFL receiver (think Anquan Boldin). McElroy can make the throws. This team can play a very balanced game and also just flat out beat you up for 4 yards a carry up the middle. That sounds scary until you realize MSU strength is linebacking and offensive line. MSU's strength might not be good enough to match up with 'Bama, but I would rather take my chances strength to strength. The secondary still isn't very smart.

Keshawn Martin needs to touch the ball often in space. Kick and punt returns, screens, end arounds, and perhaps from the backfield. He (and maybe fowler) are the only two real 1:1 match-ups MSU can exploit. I also like Baker and Bell at the second level. Look for one big run from Bell.

My guess:

MSU -- 34

Ala -- 31

Economic Rant

I don't know that I have ever agreed more with something I've heard on CNBC (Strategy Sessions) today than this. The guest was David Stockman. He was the Director of the Office of Management and Budget for Reagan (1981-1985) and wrote the first edition of the modern tax code. Obviously it is almost unrecognizable now. Off topic. The point is, our expectations are just plain wrong. When will Obama fix the jobs problem? When will Republicans fix the jobs problem?

They won't. And sadly, no one will.

The problem is our expectations are based on 2003-2007. Why we expect that level of employment, and compensation, when the whole premise was false I will never figure out. Probably the same reason people are scammed by emails offering free money and prizes for something you never entered to win or from someone you've never heard of. Short term gain with little to no work (day trading based on speed rather than fundamentals). Corporate shareholders caring only about the bottom line (quarterly reports and profits above all else, employees and corporate responsibility be damned). Americans are dumb. And they want everything quick and painless. That ain't gonna happen.

No money down, no interest ballooning adjustable rate mortgages...with no documents ("how much do you make?" ---- "Uh, $80,000...yeah $80,000." --- "Ok, sign here!") for homes that are waaay too big, or second (or third) homes leveraged to the hilt and based on overtime from uaw jobs that were obviously paying unsupportable wages.

Its grim. But its true. We are, again, leveraging things back up. Printing money. Unwilling to let these "Bush tax cuts" expire. How are we going to pay for that? What sense does that make? No one wants to pay the price, sacrifice or do the right thing. The markets are, as Mr. Stockman says "daytrader" driven. They fluctuate based on daily moves by government and external influences, not real indicators any competent investor (Buffett anyone?) would consider. Listen to this guy, even if you find him (and the topics) boring.

We have to support the middle class with manufacturing jobs and highly technical (and ever changing and willing to look ahead) industrial and R&D. Until we do that, by investing in universities like MSU, Texas A&M and PSU as well as NASA and providing incentives to actual productivity we are moving closer to catastrophe again.

There are no moral victories

There are wins and losses. This was a loss.

The sad thing is this very easily could have been an 8-10 point MSU win. No really. Hit some free throws, stop the careless turnovers (over and back with no pressure?!) and don't play Nix. Duke scored about 10 points off Nix alone, and missed scoring about 10 more (he cannot seem to get back to his man on high screens, Duke failed to find wide open players multiple times).

There were a couple of subtle, but VERY important* differences in this game. First, Lucious -- for the most part -- slowed his brain down a little. He only picked up his dribble once that I remember. He only forced a couple of passes to covered players. He finished VERY strong. Korie did all that as the primary ball handler; I would guess K.Lucious played the point at a 2:1 ratio to Lucas.

Second, and finally, this team decided to play to their strength. In the past, pressure defense against the ball handler (and wings trying to run half court sets) was a disaster. Last night Tom Izzo either turned his head or, more likely, gave an explicit green light to make overplaying defenders pay the price. Repeatedly Lucas, Green and most notably Lucious isolated and blew by their defender. I would venture it lead to 15-20 of MSU points. It also backed the defense off some and lead to dukie defensive breakdowns and, ultimately, clean msu looks for long jumpshots.

This is big. This is really big. It adds a wrinkle to the MSU offense that will keep man to man teams at bay (and should open up the half court sets more), and also plays to the MSU strengths with mismatches for Green and Lucas. Zones are a little bit different, but again, you attack a zone at seams by driving and finishing or kicking. Driving, under control and strong, is a good thing to see.

Nix is a disaster. I don't even know where to start. Payne looks like a newborn giraffe with the ball in the open floor. I'm a little concerned about Lucas' new "euro-step" layup, aka traveling. So far it has worked. I just hope it doesn't finally get called at a big moment this season.

I agree with J.Rexrode (LSJ) that Appling could be the difference should these teams meet again this year. He is very, very talented and can also put the ball on the floor. Sherman** was solid most of the game. Roe was mostly a non factor on offense but, along with Thornton, got screwed out of a few free throws on no calls. Roe played well enough and defended well. As a whole the team rebounded great. Duke was, for the most part, one and done. The problems came when Duke's "one" was a made shot, especially the 3's halfway through the second half.

All in all, I wasn't upset. Although it was sloppy and there were still far too many turnovers, when I would look down at the score, we were usually within 4 points. I can't be too upset with that against the supposed "head and shoulders" #1 team in the country at home.

* Important in my mind, which means it is likely not important.
** Pretty solid finishes around the rim. Missed a dime from Green late. Still no break on those hands. He can't catch a pass. Almost all his points came off the bounce, not the pass.

MSU pulls one out

Well, despite about 35 minutes of terribly sloppy and uninspired play (with the exception of about 3 guys) the Spartans pulled one out. UConn did MSU a favor by knocking off Kentucky (good luck doing that 6-8 weeks from now!) and making the loss a good loss, to the extent that is possible. Maybe I should just call it a loss rather than a bad loss.

Summers did what he needed to do, hit a jump shot. Lucious finished very strong. I like the Lucious that pulls long 3's and is willing to abort the play to go past a guy that is overplaying. Too often, for as long as I can remember at MSU, teams that extended the defense pretty much ended the game. Because the team was so set (or drilled) on running the plays no matter the situation, we would end up running our offense from just inside half court and make dangerous lateral passes because, hey, that is the guy that is supposed to get the ball and that is [roughly] where he is supposed to get it. Forget common sense. Executing the play is more important than scoring. Lucious provides the quickness and ball handling to take advantage of those situations. The next step is: don't make a hero pass or over-penetrate once you get by your defender.

Sherman had a pretty good game, but too often, "same" still limited his rebounding. That is, teammates would be the only competition for a loose ball or rebound, and yet, neither would end up with it because of bad timing and lacking communication. You can't get a stop on defense and knock a rebound loose from a teammate grasp, only to have the other team get another possession. One and done.

Roe had a terrible stat line with no points and 4 rebounds. Setting aside his apparent inability to do anything but go over the back (just watch a game, for every over the back call he gets they let 3 go) Roe didn't get many opportunities inside. The only player we give the ball to on the block is Green. Sherman got 2 looks in the second half, scored on both, and never got another. That is partially because of the extended defense and partially because the plays appear to be run primarily for guards, or at least the primary reads. I cut Roe a break on the bad stats. Maybe that is Nix's real grudge; I play 5 minutes a game, which is bad enough, but I get 2 touches --- if I get 2 rebounds. MSU is at its best getting inside, getting to the line and causing foul problems, kicking inside out, and getting 2nd chance points in the lane. There have been too many long jump shots in this young season.

All things considered, so long as Lucas gets healthy and Summers plays within himself, this team still has all the ability in the world and should be playing for a long, long time.

MSU basketball @ Maui

Too many problems.

Garrick Sherman has terrible hands. Think of it like a receiver in football; if you get your hands on it you should catch it. Sherman gets his hands on rebounds and loses them. Soft.

Summers has a very low basketball IQ. He is gifted, no doubt, but doesn't not know what to do with the ball. He is out of position. He does not anticipate. He takes bad shots and does basic things wrong, like stepping out of bounds. What is good for Summers is not good for MSU, and vice versa. That is, Summers is a spot up jump shooter, at best. He cannot and should not put it on the floor. However, everyone in the NBA can shoot. He knows that. He needs to be able to score off the bounce to play at the next level. He can't dribble and gets nervous with the ball in 1 on 1 situations. I liken it to someone that can't handle dead air. The person that says something, anything, rather than sit in silence. You can watch the discomfort as they scramble for a topic and then blurt out anything to end the deafening silence. That is Summers with the ball. Uncomfortable, forcing something, anything. Usually turning it over.

Lucious is a nightmare as a point guard. He also is lacking in basketball IQ, however, full of confidence. That means 100 mph in the wrong direction. Terrible passes, charges, early 3's. That is Korie's game. He is a tough matchup, no doubt, but better as a spark plug than an everyday playmaker.

Lucas, Appling and Green are the only players worth a healthy #2 right now.

The whole team is getting out rebounded and shooting free throws like the school for the blind after a trip to Rick's American Cafe.

But then...there are bursts. There are 2,3 and 4 minute spans where they show that potential and just DOMINATE. And then for 37 minutes they suck, badly.

Midterm Election Financing Tidbit

"It has always been known that the Chamber [of Commerce] was fighting [the health care] plan tooth and nail, but nobody knew just how aggressively until this week, when Bloomberg reported that health insurers gave the Chamber $86.2 million to battle the plan -- a staggering amount."

Well, that seems legit.

24 Hours of Basketball: MSU v S.Carolina

I haven't looked at the SoCar (same attitude as SoCal, but different) roster yet, but here is my guess: no less than 5 guys between 6'5" and 6'8". Now, you might say, "well yeah!" However, my guess is each one of them is between 190 and 210 lbs. In short, wirey. I expect they will look and play much like the Eastern Michigan player than dropped 33 on MSU last week. That, I'm afraid, could spell trouble.

As I said before, MSU will have trouble guarding the 'tweeners this year. Add in the fact that this team has nothing to lose, coming in unranked and unknown, and considering they will probably shoot at least 40% of their shots from beyond the arc...I just don't like it.

I haven't seen the roster. I'm going to take a quick peak, find some offensive stats from their first game, and come right back.

6'6" 210lb Jr, 6'9" 202lb Fr, 6'9" 210lb Sr, 6'8" 190lb Fr and a few more on the edges of the perameters. Not good. Now for the offense.

Of 66 attempts 16 were from 3. That seems low, but is misleading, since the game was dominated on the interior. In short, there was no need.

I still like MSU, but in a game that gets closer than it should.

Make it:

MSU - 73

SC - 59

MSU Basketball

This team is as deep and as talented as any team in MSU's history. Yes, I said that. Yes, this includes the teams from 1978-1980 and 1999-2001. I said best depth and talent, not best.

Lucas looks pretty good. He doesn't look as quick, in the open floor, but appears to be faster from the endline (outlet) to the offensive set (3 point range). His shot looks very smooth and he looks very, very smart on the attack. For example: In the same game he got past his man and went up and under (with the foul), got past his man and pulled up for a floater in the middle of the lane, pulled up for a long jumper off the dribble, and hit a three. He's taking what the defense gives, and doing it very well.

Roe looks healthy but not aggressive. I hope he finds a reason to get angry. If healthy he might be a very tough matchup guy for a 3/4. Also, if he improves his footwork, he will have the toughest challenges on defense, including: Jon Leuer (WI), Mike Davis (Ill), Maurice Creek (IN), Diebler/Buford (OSU), and others. The tweeners that used to be guarded by Allen and Morgan will now fall on Roe, Kebler, and sometimes Green. Roe will get the most difficult, the mobile, rangy, and physical.

Green is looking like Green. He blocked a 3 from the point, pick it out of the air and went end to end for a dunk last game. He had plenty of blocks and defended the EMU player with 33 points. That sounds bad, but the guy got a lot of junk calls and shot the ball 28 times. Green blocked at least 3 shots and stayed scrappy.

I still think Summers floats too much. He doesn't have any aggression. He will hit 3 shots and then do nothing for 12 minutes. That can't happen if this team wants to go from good to great.

Adreian Payne is a beast. If he stays 2 years he will be the most athletic player in the big 10. He will be MSU's first top 5 pick since Magic. If he stays 3 years he will have at least 1 triple double.

Keith Appling is a very, very good defender. He moves his feet as well or better than any on the ball defender on this team. I would not be surprised, if he gets enough minutes, for Appling to end the season on the all defensive team. He can also shoot and handle the ball very well. He isn't very tall, but he's strong for a true freshman and seems to like contact. Finally, he explodes. Often a point guard on a breakaway, especially as a freshman in his first game, will take a layup. Don't take a change missing a dunk, don't make coach angry. Not Appling. He can flat out jump. And it happens fast. So on the break he, without hesitation, goes up two handed and throws down with ease. I like this kid. He brings that swagger and athleticism that MSU often misses out on. If he learns to play in the system but keeps that individuality (ability to improvise, smartly and selectively) he could be a very good player by mid season.

Garrick Sherman is looking good. He's a little too robotic, but is rebounding well and finishing consistently. I worry about the same things I saw from Suton; at half court he decides that he is going to do a drop step, spin, ball fake, hook. It looks as if, "situation be damned, this is the move I decided to use. I may have decided last Wednesday."

Nix looks ok, not great. His weight is down and endurance is up. His free throw shooting is much improved, if not on the stat sheet at least to the eye test.

Austin Thornton will play this year. He looks very confident, very comfortable, and is taking great shots. His defense is solid and his rebounding is off the charts. The latter alone will get him 5-6 minutes per game. Situations (fouls, poor play of others, needing a good free throw shooter, teams playing 4 guards or shooting all 3's) will get him 3-4 more. A hot hand could determine if he gets more than 12 minutes per game.

When Kebler is healthy he will get minutes here and there. I would not be surprised to see him get plenty of play in the tougher games, including guarding (at least for 3-4 minutes) McAmey and E'Twan Moore. He is also confident against teams that pressure.

Lucious will get some minutes, make some big plays, but may be the odd man out this season with Appling being more explosive and Thornton/Kebler being longer defensive options. Against full court pressure teams and when/if Appling starts playing like a freshman, then Lucious may get a chance to play a bigger role.

Ianni will be a non factor. He has size (including a gut) but cannot move his feet well enough to get serious minutes except in an emergency.

Gauna will redshirt. There is just too much depth of size to waste him this year.

Unless Byrd heals fast (like, 2 days ago) he will redshirt, too. I wish that weren't the case because another knockdown 3 point shooter would be great for this team, considering Lucas/Appling/Lucious/Draymond's ability to get by their defenders to kick out.

The team is talented enough to be a 1 seed lock. I don't know that they will be, though. Purdue losing Hummel helps the conference title run. However, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Ohio State, and Indiana will all be very difficult wins. Only Iowa is a gimme, and Michigan could rise up and win with hot shooting and some favorable calls. Ohio State has a backloaded schedule and will be the deciding factor, since they play MSU only once (at OSU).

MSU Off Week

They are what I thought they were. This is part "I told you so" and part "ok, so I was wrong about that."

This team is not that good. Not really. The defense especially is problematic. There simply isn't enough depth at corner and safety, and when the D-line had a few injuries, the team really floundered. Northwestern was too close, Iowa wasn't even laughable, and Minny was too close.

The offense is not performing to its ability. I have been vocal, since the first game, about the failings at QB. In fact, the throwing off the back foot issues has been in place all season. It was apparent and frequent as early as ND. Once the defenses got better and the game tapes have revealed the tendencies -- lights out. Iowa had a field day. What does that mean for the rest of the regular season?

Purdue will get plenty of pressure on Cousins. Under pressure (especially on the STUPID play action passes) seems to be when Cousins likes to throw off the back foot and float the ball to the wide side. Even bad DB's can jump that route. A week off could help fix things, but I think Cousins is missing the direction Enos provided (before leaving for CMU).

PSU isn't great in terms of getting pressure on the QB, but the linebackers and db's are better than Purdue. The game is at Happy Valley. It will likely be cold. PSU can run the ball and spread that ball around in space in the passing game. That means, unless the defense forces a few turnovers, Cousins is going to have to make some plays downfield. Screens are going to be limited by the excellent linebackers and the D-line is not over powering but is very disciplined. I like lots of Bell, some 5 wide with Caper, and hopefully some patience from Baker off tackle.

MSU can win both games. MSU should win both games. I do not expect MSU to win both games. In fact, it is a toss up. One would think a win against Purdue and a loss at Happy Valley. I, however, think it is equally likely this team comes out flat after the week off, lets Purdue hang around, and gets caught looking ahead. Then, as things often get strange in the MSU - PSU game, MSU runs wild. Why? Well, Penn State isn't all that good. Jo Pa is not coherent. Motivation is not a problem, considering the PSU thumpings the last two years and the fact that this "land grant" thing comes to a close this year. Finally, MSU needed to get healthy -- mentally and physically -- as much as anything. This bye week was much needed. Before Iowa would have been nice, but alas, you can't always get what you wa-aant.

Make this week:

MSU ---- 27

Purdue - 24

In Game MSU v NU

The wet field is killing MSU. If it is going to be a little wet, it needs to POUR. The hesitation is obvious. That favors the team that runs more plays on offense. The injuries are mounting for MSU and don't look to be bumps and bruises.

Also, you can't let NW run for 4-5 yards a pop. They can't run the ball. Worthy is out or limited. The corners are weak. The QB run is getting just enough, and given the number of slipped arm tackles by MSU, its a wonder this game is even close.

NW scores again. 17-0 after a missed field goal by MSU.

Missed tackles, injuries, and lack of pressure have exposed this secondary for what it is: overrated. To be fair, with Rucker in and Dennard healthy, this team is a lot better. But, they sure aren't showing it now.

Also, can we stop with the play action? Here's the deal. Play action is effective AFTER you establish the run. MSU hasn't established the run, pass, or that they are a Division 1 team. This is sick.

And don't tell me about "the biggest comeback" story again. That was Drew Stanton. If Drew Stanton was on this team they would be a LEGIT top 5 team in the country. This is not a comeback team. Not like that Stanton team.

17-7.

Finally, a sign of life. Get it to playmakers. Get it to Baker. Get it to Cunningham. Get it to Dell.

You still have to get a stop here before the half. Maybe, just maybe, a pick 6. This defense is due to buckle down and make something happen. The offense made the first move, for the first time this year, now the defense needs to feed off the offense.

Halftime.

Broke open the IPA. Should this work, I'll be taking IPA sponsors for each of the upcoming games. Should really free up my budget (and tongue) to give more analysis.

24-14.

Persa is, well, doing just enough. Missed tackles continue to haunt. The offense needs to move the ball and score. MSU still has to run.

NU Pregame Update

There were a few problems getting NU's team to load up the dodge caravans for the game. Leaving behind the Dungeons and Dragons/Word of Warcraft online tournament was brutal. I haven't seen a hold like that since last the last 150 starts for Jeff Backus.

This did not help the NU stereotype, enforced by NU Basketball player Kevin

Coble * , and solidified by the NU football player to the left.

Also problematic, the complicated flow chart confiscated from the NU playbook. No wonder 1. the offense can't run the ball, and 2. Persa completes 78% of his passes. There is a box for each possible outcome, including wind, lighting, and temperature. But there isn't an option for "have a bigger, strong line and running back." Can't run a model for that.

* Kevin Coble a/k/a "I would like to forgo my senior season to focus on electrical engineering."

MSU @ Northwestern

This can't be considered a "trap game" because:

1. NU is 5-1. I know that Iowa is next, but how do you look past a team that is 5-1?

2. MSU beat Illinois last week but didn't look very good doing it. I expect a BIG running day.

3. NU is a decent team. There is no such thing as a trap game when the opposing team is good.

4. Not only is NU good, they are good exactly where MSU hurts; against that nasty short pass.

5. This is MSU first true road game and first trip out of the state. You are wide awake.

The things that bother me are threefold. 1. Rucker would be quite helpful in this game. 2. The season continues to build in terms of the opposing QB. Robinson could run, Scheelhasse could move the pocket and throw, Persa can run a little, move the pocket, and is VERY accurate. 3. MSU has gotten too many breaks thus far.

Cousins has improved over the last three weeks. The penalties have seen some improvement, especially considering that the pass interference call on Dennard was terrible. The special teams continue to be great, including much improved kickoff distance. The pass rush has gotten much better. It will have to improve yet again this weekend if they intend to hit Basanez, I mean CJ Bacher, err, rather Dan Persa. Different QB, same result. 4.5 million passing attempts and 78% completion rate. Also, not many sacks. He gets the ball out quickly. Pretty amazing. But, given that NU can only run for about 2.2 yards per carry, I guess you do what you can. Also, I don't see that 2.2 getting much higher this weekend. NU hasn't really played anyone as good as MSU against the run yet.

NU's defense is underrated, too. The db's are pretty solid and can make a play. The scheme is good. The lines, if nothing else, are smart. Pat Fitzgerald is a good recruiter and appears to be a pretty good coach. I just don't get it though. He's a tough guy. A run the ball, smack somebody in the mouth, hard hitter. But he runs this little ticky tack offense that just won't work consistently enough to win more than 7 games per year. That's pretty good, but at some point, you have to have more balance.

I like MSU in this game so long as there is discipline. The penalties, missed assignments and missed tackles have to be limited. The QB can't run all over the place, especially on 3rd down. The defense has to get off the field. Last, MSU has to get back to running the ball, taking care of the ball, and looking to put up at least 3 points every time they touch it.

Make it:

MSU -- 34

NU -- 27

Hoops 2010

The B10, notwithstanding the loss of Hummel, is going to be great to watch this year.

Everyone is talking about MSU. Everyone is still confident Purdue will be good, though not as good as 2 weeks ago. Everyone is certain Thad Matta has set up enough rental players to beat some good teams.

Few people are talking about Illinois, perhaps the most realistic challenger for the conference title. Even fewer are talking about Wisconsin, a team that usually just finds a way. Almost no one is talking about Indiana. Don't sleep on Indiana. They are going to be very, very good over the next 2 seasons. Minny and NWstrn can win games, especially MN.

No one is talking about Michigan, Penn State or Iowa. That's probably fair.

The point is, from top to bottom,* this league is good. Very, very good.

MSU will win [at least a share of] the big ten and make the elite 8 IF they stay healthy and find a solid rotation early. They will not finish the season in the top 5, will not get a #1 seed, and will not always look great. By the end of the season this team will gain speed and depth on the perimeter, as the younger guards gain experience. The bigs? They will be solid all year. In fact, I can't remember more depth from the 3-5 positions, well, ever for MSU. In fact, off the top of my head I can't think of a team in the country with better post depth this season.

By the way, Izzo is the president of the NABC, and is not in favor of the proposed rule changes ending July recruiting. In essence, it would empower runners and agents because, lets face it, people are going to be out there on behalf of schools recruiting anyways. Guess who is in favor of it? Calipari! Hey! Who wudda thought?!

*By bottom I mean the 8th team. psu, michigan and iowa are going to be horrid. Again.

market news

"Look, you could take all the gold that's ever been mined, and it would fill a cube 67 feet in each direction. For what that's worth at current gold prices, you could buy all -- not some -- all of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobils, plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money. Or you could have a big cube of metal. Which would you take? Which is going to produce more value?"

Warren Buffett

HOMECOMING

After being so far from home for so long* MSU is finally back in East Lansing for Homecoming, looking to go 7-0 for the first time in a long, long time.

Illinois and the Zooklanders are coming in with nothing to lose**and plenty of talent. Illinois certainly better without juice williams at QB. They are better at RB, better on the offensive line, and better on defense. This team is not a joke.*** It has yet to be proven if Zook can coach, but he can recruit. Ask Urban Meyer.

I still like MSU to win. I still like the team to focus on this week's game rather than look ahead. This is a classic "trap game," in terms of the place on the schedule and the recent big wins. However, since I decided it was a trap game on Monday I've proceeded to read from no less than 15 sources that MSU will lose this week because this is a trap game. I don't think, if they should lose, it will be for overlooking Illinois. Honestly, the idiot Rucker, lack of a pass rush (still) and Cousins mistakes will be the reason. This team still has holes. Big holes. Holes that a team like Iowa or Ohio State would expose, and holes that a team like Illinois could exploit in a good day. I don't like a qb that is pretty mobile AND can make some passes. That describes Scheelhaase to a T. Guys that move the pocket put pressure on corners to cover for longer, and put pressure on linebackers to be disciplined (and not help in coverage). I don't like that either.

Rucker is a real moron. He was on probation, had a second chance, was playing quite well, and pissed it all away. He is likely done. I don't know how Dantonio could bring him back. That hurts. He was BY FAR the best cover corner, best blizter off the corner, and little known fact --- third leading tackler on the team. That means he was good in run support. Will his replacement be good eventually? For sure, probably better. However, D.Dennard is a freshman. He will get picked on, be out of position, and is likely good for at least one penalty and one blown cover for a big play.

Make it:

MSU - 31
Illinois - 21


*trips to Detroit and annarbor in the first 6 weeks make homecoming so special
**technically they could lose the game, a head coaching job, and for the 12th time in 14 meetings
***yes they are

MSU ummm wrapup

What a week, and what a win. The defense did enough and the offense was efficient. The Spartans, honestly, dominated. Denard could have 6-7 yards on first down (with a QB run off tackle) between the 30's, but inside the 30...nada. The defense was SOLID. There should have been at least one more interception. Denard cannot throw the ball with accuracy consistently. When he did, there were drops (bad drops).

I'll also give Kirk some credit. He made some big plays and was accurate. However, he threw off his back foot rolling out of pressure too often for comfort. That sort of thing will get you in trouble against a real division one defense, like, say, Iowa. And you can bet the pressure will be MUCH tougher from the front four against Iowa. I don't like that. Also, Cousins picked apart (on long plays, mostly) a defense that is simply a joke. That they are worse than MSU's secondary should tell you something.

The running game remains excellent, especially the play calling. When you see a misdirection play -- or any running play -- go for 50+ yards you have to assume 3 things. A good back, good block, and a GREAT play call. You may be able to replace one of the three with bad tackling. In most cases it has been a good play call, decent blocking, and strong running.

The kicking game has been very good but largely untested. I still don't know what to think about a 40+ yard field goal in a pressure situation. I love our punting, punt coverage, and punt returns. I also like our discipline in the last few weeks with penalties. The team will have to stay penalty free the next few weeks against teams like Illinios, Northwestern, and Iowa. The first two don't need any favors to stay on the field on offense, the last team just plain doesn't need any help.

MSU ummm weekend

In state rivals preview: Don't believe the hype edition. Aka "a mili" reasons to take the under.

Denard Robinson is a really, really fast running back. He looks even faster, even more elusive, even more unstoppable when playing an undersized and overhyped uCONNartist, notre so gooda*, UMASSive distraction from basketball, bowlingMacNcheese, and Indiana. IU is, by far, the best team umm has played this year. Lil' Wayne and Desmond Howard are still proud of their offspring.

ummm has been outgained (total offensive yardage) by two opponents and has given up: 343, 535, 439, 283, and 568 yards on defense. The 283 (to Bowling Green) looks good, until you realize that BGSU was held to 176 total yards the following week against mighty Buffalo. In other words, Michigan's defense sucks. Bad. Sieves are sending the umm defense thank you's.

But you all know that. We also know that D.Robinson is quick, fast and is susceptible to kryptonite.** Not only does he not put his pants on one leg at a time, he doesn't wear pants. He won the 2011 Heisman last week by -- surprise -- running the ball a LOT against Indiana. He also threw the ball a lot, which, in all fairness and sarcasm, is also very difficult against IU.

Is Denard the best player in the country thus far? Absolutely. I guess my point it this: he cannot maintain this level of play on his own. He can't continue running the ball this often with their backloaded schedule. He cannot continue to be that efficient a passer because, well, he's not a passer. He is a running back that has thrown all over a bunch of crap defenses loading up the box. It just isn't realistic to think he can continue to pile up these nasty stats. 1. The defenses get much, much better. 2. He will get hurt and/or tired. 3. Statistics bear out that turnovers become more and more likely with each game, each series, each down. He can't remain this flawless. Tebow had a LOT of talent around him that had to be respected. The defense was also very good. Finally, check Michael Vick's stock if you don't believe me. Flying high, everyone on the bus. Bruised ribs, out 3 weeks, "told you he couldn't last." FREEP asks "can MSU make Denard Look Human?" I say, he is bound to look human very, very soon. Vegas won't even take that money.

MSU still has a crap secondary. Also, if I hear one more time that the MSU defense held Wisconsin's Clay "in check" I might puke. Clay was hurt. It was obvious he could not cut. The shifty, faster, younger White ripped MSU up once he got past the line of scrimmage. That will be more telling than the performance against Clay, I'm afraid. Speed kills, especially for teams that aren't in position or have to over-commit to the pass. The only saving grace is umm's offensive line is NOT anywhere near as good as Wisconsin's. Also, what has hurt the MSU DE's so far will help in this game (if reined in). Speed and pursuit up field will pay off if it is turned in to lateral movement. That is, use that speed to get outside blocks and contain, use the LB's to fill gaps up the middle. Make him throw. If he runs, hit him. If he runs and pitches, hit him. If he rolls out to throw, hit him.

MSU is still getting suspect play from their QB. Cousins is not playing anywhere near the level I expected. He takes bad, bad sacks. Then he does the opposite, forcing terrible throws. I just don't get it.

In all fairness, ummm's matchups this year have been especially bad for this defense. Their competition is shifty, spreads it around, the throw, throws, throws the ball. That puts ummm's db's under pressure. Their db's are, well, in prison, on other college rosters, in the canadian football league, or in their 3rd practice after learning about walk on tryouts during chem lab. They. Are. Bad. How bad? They WISH they had Jaren Hayes.

That is exactly why I am worried. What do they have to lose? Blitz. Guess. Overplay. Hand check. Take chances. I mean, what is your other option, play straight up and get beat anyways?

MSU's running game needs to be strong with the ball. The play calling has to be solid, on both sides of the ball, but not overly cute. The receivers HAVE to hold on to the ball. The kicking game (punting, coverage, and field goals) has to be neutral (do not be the hero or the goat). Finally, the penalties cannot be umm's 12th man. Keep the penalties to a minimum.

My odds predictions. UM misses at least one field goal or extra point that it should make. Ghoulston makes a big play. Nichol makes a key play. ummm's defense is not as bad as usual. Rucker gets a big, big hit on Robinson off a corner blitz.

Make it:

MSU - 35

UM - 28

*Especially without the starting QB for 1/2 the game. Michigan owes the Montana kid****a big, big thank you.

**Is kryptonite Green?*** Yes, in fact, it is.

***Does a blind man fart in the dark?

** **Not hannah, but close.

In Game

Cousins continues to look like a walk on that made the team last week. And played his first game of football the week before. And learned English 2 weeks prior. That bad. In fact, had the PUNTER not thrown a beautiful pass against ND there would be a QB controversy with anything with 2 arms.

The defense, through 1.25 quarters, has been very good. Too many long runs on first down, but given that there have been 2 turnovers (on giving up short field) you can't be too upset.

Bell is full grown. He is strong, patient, and certainly not looking like a freshman.

GREG JONES almost took that handoff. He was in the backfield on 3rd and 3 in time to take the bobbled hand off. Punt Wisconsin, followed by an important question...

WHY DO YOU EVER PUNT TO KESHAWN MARTIN?!

Why? Ever?

Returned 74 yards. TD.

Defense and Special Teams dragging Cousins and company through this game. Hand it off. Do it again. Take care of the ball.

I agree with the call to go for it on 4th and 1/2. I do not agree going up the middle. Use Bell's strength AND speed to get outside.

Love the use of the tight ends. Finally.

AND TD to a Tight End!!!

If you wondered about the size and our existence of Treadwell's, well, shopping bags, they are alive and well. 4th down and 1, 3 point lead, you THROW?! With a QB that has 2 (should be 3) picks already?! With 1 (one) (won) real receiving option*?! Yes, alive. And they may secede from the Union, they are that large.

Finally, I hope Jones is ok. His arm was hanging late.

Bret Bielema is arrogant as ever. Perhaps when the University of Denard Robinson fires dick rod they can hire bret.

Post Game Show: Retire them

Will Tieman just said "Gus...tell me about this play..." as he was talking to Don Treadwell. Please, please, for the love of God, retire Will Tieman and Gus Ganakis, from both Basketball and Football.**

*Cunningham was the only route. If he doesn't get a release, there is nothing for Cousins to do with the ball.
**Gus doesn't do football.***
***Gus barely does basketball. Using the word barely is doing him a favor.

MSU v wisky

I really do not have a lot to say about last week's game against northern colorado. First, I didn't see it. Second, it was like a scrimmage against a pretty good high school team. Really, it is a joke to charge fans full price for these games and equally a joke to include the results in any ranking. I also don't really care for playing games like this leading in to more serious play. I don't buy the confidence builder argument, either. The only upside I see is getting healthy. MSU wasn't really hurting.

But here we are. Wisconsin comes to town this weekend for a matchup of unbeatens. The teams both also happen to be unproven, struggling at times against lesser talent and beating up on cupcakes (70-3? Really?).

I maintain that Wisconsin is not flashy nor terribly impressive in any one facet of the game. However, as ND showed against MSU, it is all about matchups. Style, goals, and talent matchups. Unfortunately, although not flashy, Wisconsin is a more solid version of MSU, at least where it matters: in the trenches.

I like MSU's receivers, running backs, and tight ends better. Honestly, I don't think Tolzien is that much better than Cousins. I do recognize that Cousins has not played very well this season, and certainly not under pressure. I like MSU punting and kick returning better, and I like MSU's linebacking group better. Wisconsin wins every other matchup. The OLine, Dline, kicking, and secondary are all better for the badgers. The Oline and Dline talent gap, especially the gap between UW's Oline and MSU's Dline* is significant.

That said, with any improvement in the MSU secondary, I like MSU's chances in this game. I think a fast start in scoring by both team will fall in to a run the ball, time of possession, field position game decided by special teams. Punt returns, kick returns, and punting will make the difference. Although, if MSU has 11 penalties again this won't even be close.

my best:

MSU - 31
UW - 27

*with the exception of Jerel Worthy. He will play on Sundays. I would almost bet he plays on Sundays next season. The only reason he doesn't look more dominant is the lack of pass rush from everyone else.

Rumored Heart Attack

Pseudo news all over Twitter about a Dantonio Hearth Attack. News conference scheduled for 1:00 pm today. Lets hope for the best.

Preliminary Reaction

In hindsight, obviously, the decision is not that difficult. Think about it.

The kicker is young. It's a 46 yard kick. The best possible result? Another OT.

The most important factor? You've already held ND to a field goal. The defense is not likely to do it again. The offense looks worse with each passing second. The QB is, to put it kindly, doing everything wrong. The line isn't giving him any time and the play calling is atrocious. In the next OT MSU has the ball first, giving Kelly the same benefit of knowing whether he needs a TD or just a field goal. As a coach what would you do? I think, although your odds are only about 25%* of completing the fake, you might only have a 25% chance of winning in another OT. That may be generous.

So, again with the benefit of hindsight, the call wasn't that ballsy. In fact, it may have been the logical thing to do.

*based on zero research, analysis, or expertise

Spartans & the Irish

Let's just be honest. We don't know anything about MSU.

Let's continue with the honesty. We won't know much more after tomorrow night.

MSU has run about 30% of the playbook so far. The game plan has been run, run, and run. Pass on 3rd down. Take a shot down field every other possession. Punt. Kick. Run. The defense get little to no pressure from the front 4, can't seem to contain, and continues to drop interceptions (at least 3 against Western). However, again, that is all out of the base defense with vanilla looks and, with the exception of Rucker on a couple of corner blitzes, no extra pressure to speak of.

And after Notre Dame leaves town? We'll know a little bit more about Cousins, the receivers, and perhaps this 3-4 defense. I would expect to see some of the 3-4 against this spread. It should tell us a little more about how the defense will look against michigan and Northwestern. Other than that? Notre Dame is atypical and, honestly, not that impressive. Kelly will change that by next season and the weaker than normal schedule this year will be deceptive. But this team is a year away from making noise.

I don't even know what to say about Crist's "migraine." The migraine that was not a concussion. The migraine that cause blurred vision, memory loss, incoherence, and came after a hit to the head. Why would anyone think it was a concussion? I wonder, if ND was handling um rather than looking like William & Mary (minus William), my guess is Crist isn't even playing this week. But, magically, he was back in the second half. Maybe it really wasn't a concussion. I'm sure that's the sort of the thing you figure out at halftime.

I like ND's talent positions, with Floyd, Rudolph, and Allen. Crist, when coherent, was by far the best signal caller. Nate Montana was, well, less than impressive. Either um's defense is A LOT better than they should be (somehow doubt it) or ND's offense is underachieving. The defense probably did a good job of keeping Robinson to 2200 yards for the game. Pryor (OSU) took, and takes, all sorts of crap for being a running back that sometimes throws the ball. Robinson had more carries last game than any other Michigan running back has for the season. That is difficult to plan for and even more difficult to stop on the fly. What would I do? Treat him as a running back. Assume he will run on every play. The corners are going to give up plays anyways. Gamble some. Hit him. Hit him again. Hit him hard. Bring corners, safeties, linebackers, bring everyone. Hit him on the option. Hit him when he runs. Hit him when he throws. Then hit Gardner. Then, if he's moved up to the 3rd spot on the depth chart, hit Lil Man tate until his dad feels it.

The MSU defense could be physical, especially Worthy and Ghoulston. I like Worthy in this week's game to get at least 1 sack. I also like the defense to FINALLY make a play on a ball, jump a route, and return one for a score.

Make it:

MSU - 38
ND - 26

Dream Job

I want to be the guy that sets the manufacturer's suggested retail price ("MSRP"). Think about it. Setting it goes something like this:

ME: What do you want to sell the item for?

CFO: $AAA.BB

ME: Ok. Is this product a really good deal, a good deal, or an overrated brand name?

CFO: good deal.

ME: Ok. I'll crunch some numbers.

4 seconds and 1 calculation later...

ME: the MSRP is ($AAA.BB) X (1.5)

CFO: what if it is a really good deal?

ME: ($AAA.BB) X (2)

CFO: what if it is an overrated name brand?

ME: those aren't manufactured, they're crafted

A Day in the D

If the rain holds off, it could be a great, great day.

If the rain comes, it could be a great afternoon and the casino determines the greatness of the night.

Tomorrow we leave town at 8am for our annual MSU road trip. To Ford Field. To see a game against Florida Atlantic. It has been covered ad nauseum in the Detroit media, so I won't go in to it.

The last time I saw Florida Atlantic play was at Spartan Stadium. It rained. It rained a lot. The tailgate was miserable and the game was worse. It rained so hard the water ran down the stairs in small rivers, cascading over each step and washing away all the joy and happiness of a fall Saturday.

Tomorrow the game is indoors, thankfully. Of course the 7:05 Tigers game is just in time for a 7:30 pm thunderstorm (60% chance).

Florida Atlantic is 1-0 after beating UAB 32-31 last weekend. Florida Atlantic threw for 254 yards and ran for 93, but threw the ball 24 times and ran 28. The running game is either terrible, or UAB's defensive front is great. I am leaning towards the former.

The good news? UAB ran up 424 yards of offense with 345 rushing yards (47 rushing attempts!). Caper, Baker, and Bell must be salivating just thinking about the field turf and that defense. With only 79 passing yards (19 attempts) I have to guess UAB is not a great passing team. It will be interesting to see if it was partly FAU's secondary and how MSU decides to attack it.

I am also anxious to see how the kicking game looks on the turf. The real excitement will come from watching the athletic tight ends fully utilized (if the FAU secondary is that good) and Keshawn Martin on the carpet. He could be scary. FAU has a good punting game.

Greg Jones and company should be even more effective on the turf, and I expect the interception drought to not only end, but end in a pick 6. FAU QB Van Camp spread the ball around to 6 different players last week, but only one player had more than 1 catch. That player was Lester Jean, who finished with 9 catches for 164 yards and 2 TD's. He is a big target at 6'3" 195lbs, but will be getting plenty of attention, you can be sure.

MSU is just too deep at receiver, running back, and tight end to not score frequently. The defense will be tested by a team that
Make it:

MSU - 41
FAU - 24

League Preview

I can't recall a season when I knew less about each B10 team than this year. Juice is gone. Kafka is gone. Clark is gone. Michigan's secondary is gone, to the extent it ever existed.

Nor can I remember a B10 season with more close and bizarre finishes than last year. Teams like Indiana, MSU, and Purdue can attest to the fact that 10 plays or less can swing a season 5 games one way or the other. There isn't a lot of room for error.

With that said, here is my best, errors and all.

Illinois - Alphabetically speaking, Illinois is first. (how many leagues can say their first team alpha wise starts with I or later in the alphabet?*) I have no idea what Illinois, or Zook, can pull off this year. I can tell you that if Zookie doesn't win some games AND win a bowl game, he's gone. Illinois does not have many seniors, but offensively, there is experience at key positions. That would not include QB. I see a .500 season for Illinois with a late push for a bowl game. The early and mid schedule looks like murderers row. Especially the run of hosting OSU, followed by at Penn State and at MSU, then back home for a game with sleeper Indiana. I see 6-6 and a potential bowl bid. I see a Zookless 2011.

Indiana - I am glad IU is off the MSU schedule. The IU defense is not very good, and the running game is just ehh, but the passing game is scary. Indiana will put up a few points this year and, given some luck, could win 8 games. Indiana lost all the close ones last year but should take advantage of that pain as they return a lot of starters. The team is especially experienced in the defensive secondary, with a half dozen senior corners, linebackers, and safeties. Prediction: the stadium will not come anywhere near selling out until mid season. However, the cupcake non conference and somewhat favorable early B10 schedule could allow them to build momentum and steal a big conference win. 7-5 and a bowl loss.

Iowa - Stanzi is pretty impressive, but it will be interesting to see what happens with a little RB trouble and his favorite safety valve, TE Moeaki, gone. There is plenty of depth at RB but it could take a minute to sort out. There is experience at WR as well, so Stanzi should improve again this year. The defense was great last year and should be stout again this year, especially if the running game can run up the time of possession. 7-5 with some very close losses, plus a bowl game win.

Michigan - Michigan, Michigan, Michigan. I'm almost sad that little richard won't be around next year. Michigan's defense will be horrendous. Graham is gone. Good luck replacing him. The defensive secondary is gone, literally. Attrition, early outs, injuries, and felonies have hit the secondary hard. As soon as the man defense gets burned deep they will go zone. Then teams will pound the ball for more rushing yards than Bo gave up in a decade. The semi good news is the offense should be a lot better. Robinson will get most of the PT under center (or more likely out of the gun) early. He is considering tying his shoes this year, too. We'll watch for updates. The offense will be sporadic, appearing to be unstoppable at times, and then imploding without reason. Time of possession will appear manic from game to game, with balanced offensive teams dominating a Michigan team playing constant catch up. The schedule is brutal and will likely result in a 0-2 start, a mid season glimmer of hope for bowl eligibility, and a crushing defeat by OSU to deny any hope of a little caesars bowl game appearance. 5-7 finish. Bowl = No. Violations = Yes. Recruiting = screwed. Richard = packing.

Michigan State - In case you haven't heard: the 2009 season was a disappointment, there was a fight at a frat party, and the 2010 schedule is so easy MSU should win a national championship. Sports writers get paid to have original thoughts, from what I'm told. MSU will be improved in the secondary, significantly, but still not as good as I expect to see next season. The real talent at corner is young and the team still lacks a good safety, let alone depth at safety. The pass rush was actually pretty good last season but the secondary will benefit even more from a better pass rush this year. There are 1.5 billion quality linebackers, and 2.5 billion linebacker recruits in the pipeline. The pass rush should be improved and benefit from the new scheme (mixed use of the 3-4). There is nothing for opposing offenses to scout, yet. MSU does not leave the state until October 23, and even then its only a trip to the SAT center of the universe in greater Chicago. Penn State and Iowa on the road are the biggest road challenges and are not even in consecutive weeks. ND will be better this year, but its a night home game on national tv with a young ND QB. The tight losses will be flipped to tight wins if the kicking game gets sorted out. This team has a real shot at being 7-0 before playing a road game (which I predict could be followed by 2 quick losses). 9-3 with a bowl win over the soon to be newest B10 member, Nebraska, on New Year's Day.**

Minnesota - Minnesota is not a good team. In 2009 they couldn't run or pass the ball consistently, partly because of injuries but mostly because, well, beyond a few starters there wasn't a whole lot of talent. The early schedule is soft and could allow MN to sort things out, get rolling, and find some talent on that roster. Overall the team is very young, but the secondary should be a strength. Weber is solid, when healthy, and usually makes good decisions in the red zone. Finish: 5-7 with no real shot at a bowl game already evident by late October.

Northwestern - I really don't know what to think about NW. I would like to say, despite not having a running game at all, the passing game is at least solid. But Kafka is gone. Besides being their accurate and prolific passer and captain, he was the second leading rusher. Ouch. The schedule is not particularly easy and includes a couple of road games early (who goes TO Rice?) The defense was pretty good in 2009 and should be at least as good in 2010. So much depends on the offense for NW , and as a result, the QB. With that in question until proven otherwise, I see this as a rebuilding year with about 4 games up in the air. Finish: 5-7.

Ohio State - I recently heard the OSU defensive line coach say he thought this might be the best defensive front in OSU's history. That does not bode well for the B10, unless, of course, you are MSU or NW. The non-conference schedule is so so, with a somewhat improved Miami (in Columbus) and a team in name (Marshall) if not talent. Marshall didn't win a game of note last year and will actually be worse this year. Two games stand out to me for OSU in what could honestly be a national championship appearance: a 7pm kickoff in mid October at Wisconsin and Nov 20 at Iowa, kick TBD (I would guess they push for a 7pm kickoff). Also, notwithstanding the criticism of Minny above, the October 30 7pm kickoff at Minnesota is a trap game. Pryor still hasn't proven that he can be accurate for an entire game when the secondary is experienced, and OSU plays a close game every year with a far inferior team. Plus, the game comes the week before a stretch that goes Penn State, @ Iowa, Michigan. Push comes to shove? I can't pick a B10 team to beat OSU this year. Not one.*** Prediction: 12-0 + a bowl win = a national championship.****

Penn State - Clark is gone but Royster's back. There are questions at QB but also a lot of talent. The solid running game and defense will make the QB less important this year than next, when both are significantly weaker. At Alabama in week 2 is a tough, tough start for a new QB. Youngstown State, Kent State, and Temple round out the non conference. The B10 schedule is balanced and looks like about 8-4 plus a bowl loss.

Purdue - Purdue has been the same team for about 4 years. Not very good, not very bad, and a lot of close losses. It seems like Purdue is due a few close wins this year. They've been paying the premiums for a while now, and I think they may make a claim or two finally, in 2010. If they do, however, it is more likely to be the result of an improved defense than maintaining last year's offensive achievements. I'm not saying the QB can't succeed, but moving games from close losses to close wins does not happen with an unproven QB. Elliot is gone. Bolden is back and is a solid, tough RB. The schedule starts fairly easy but finishes pretty hard, including @OSU, @Ill, Wisc, UM, @MSU and a rivarly game against IU over the last 6. With some favorable bounces, accurate kicking and at least so-so QBing Purdue could be over .500. Make it: 7-5 with a bowl loss to a MAC team.

Wisconsin - I just can't buy that Wisc will be as good as everyone seems to think. They will be boring and good, but I can't see great. I still see them as a 50/50 proposition in most games. Tolzien is accurate and likes his TE. His best 2 TE's are gone, so we'll see how he uses the RB's and WR's. Clay runs hard. He has break away speed, too. I really don't know what else to say about WI. The non-conference is more difficult than average, but not too hard. I see an 8-4 finish and a bowl game. They could win or lose it.

* stop looking, the answer is 1 is D1, and its the Missouri Valley.
** tell me that isn't a bold, detailed prediction.
*** unless you are giving me points and paying out 10:1. Then we can talk.
**** over...hmm...Arkansas? Arizona? Too many QB questions at the traditional powers.

Recruiting

I know, just last week I said that I was not in to the recruiting thing. That is for nerds. Well, I'm not in to memorizing kids stats and living and dying with each rumor or verbal commit. I do, however, keep abreast of some things. Mostly I follow the in state kids. If nothing else, where the 4 and 5 star kids (from Michigan) go is an indicator of where the programs are heading.

The fact that MSU is not only competing but regularly getting the best kids is very, very nice. I am especially excited to get the best linebacker in the state for the third straight year. You could make the argument that MSU got the 2 best linebackers in the state in 2010. When a kid knows there is already depth and talent at MSU at his position and still commits that is a good sign. He is a competitor and likes what he's seen. Better yet? He's from Detroit. As little as 3 years ago such a get would have been considered a crime, an absolute theft. Now we call it Wednesday afternoon.

I was equally upset to see super recruit Justice Hayes (grand blanc) choose ND. I can understand, with the stable of MSU backs and the chance to play for a team sure to make some noise in coming years under Kelly. It hurts a little, though.

I also LOVE the story coming out of Gary, IN. A 5 star recruit (6'6", 210) small forward (ala Alan Anderson -- not blazing speed but deceptive with some handles and a lanky game for his height) verballed for 2011. His recruiting bio on espn lists Indiana, Marquette, Purdue, Georgetown, and UCLA. Well, looks like MSU should have been somewhere on that list. ESPN puts him at the 14th best player in the country regardless of position, #4 small forward (must be a deep SF class!).

Oh, yeah. Chris Allen is gone. No more giraffe on roller skates analogies. In all fairness his defensive footwork and attention went from about -4 to 100 (on a scale of who am I guarding? to B+ level Bobby Knight defensive camp counselor). He also seemed to be a little more turned on than turned off in terms of being aggressive with the ball. He was becoming fearless with the ball and quite obviously had no memory.

The bad: I'm fairly certain he is exactly as smart as he sounds/looks/acts/showed himself to be. Also, Izzo is fiercely loyal to his players. You will learn lessons and take your lumps, but he rarely (has he ever?) gives up on anyone. I don't think Izzo has given up on Allen, but he has determined that what Allen needs cannot be provided in East Lansing. There is no doubt in my mind that Chris will get his stuff together, to some degree, and in 15 years he will be at some sort of MSU event singing Izzo's praises, thank coach for forcing him to grow up.

B11(12?) Basketball Update

Yeah yeah yeah, its football season. I have a noteworthy basketball update, however.

Northwestern forward Kevin Coble will not return to the basketball team but will instead focus on academics. Coble went down early last season to injury which quickly deflated preseason expectations. This is a serious blow going forward for a team on the cusp of making the NCAA tournament for the first time in 1.5X10^3 years.*

I look for a fairly talented but young NW team to slide down a few projected slots this season as a result. Coble wasn't necessarily pretty to watch, but he was legit. Which really makes me wonder. I mean, I think he could have played professionally somewhere.



*I'll have my NW grads check the accuracy of that estimate

Summer Ponderings

Summer is great, don't get me wrong. I love the weather, the baseball, grilling and the lake. The 4th of July rivals any holiday in my book. Seasonal beers? Off the charts.

But for college sports fans (other than baseball) it is a real downtime. The only real exception is reserved for recruiting nerds. Freaks that follow star ratings and the personal lives of otherwise normal 15, 16, and 17 year old boys love this time of year. I can't get into it.

I will say this about recruiting: I like Dantonio's straight forward approach and analysis of high school talent. Kirk Cousins? He was a throw in. Keshawn Martin? He was a throw in too. MSU has more depth at running back and tight end since the late 90's and more depth at linebacker than ever. Ever.

You can question the character problems that sprung up last year. That is fair. I genuinely believe that the second chance (that back fired) given to one player was not based on team needs. I think it was 100% an opportunity to give a hard knock kid what could be his last shot at doing something big. It didn't work. That cancer is gone, at least 2 others are gone, too. The players that stayed are scared to death and were never really problems anyways. Their problem was in following, not instigating.

Finally, Brian Kelly has done an excellent job at every stop. He can certainly "coach kids up." However, I have to believe a good part of the success at Cinci was the talent level. 2010 was certainly the most talent Kelly's ever had. Nine (9) Dantonio recruits were drafted by NFL teams between 2009 and 2010, including 2 all time Cinci stat leaders and all americans. The points isn't really to focus on Kelly. He can coach. The point is that Dantonio's analysis and recruiting are solid.

Dantonio's recruiting doesn't include a lot of home runs, but a lot of singles and doubles. Singles and doubles take time to add up. Last year was a let down because the cupboard was, for the first time in a while, somewhat stocked. Despite the talent level the team never really met expectations. This year is big.

Although the lines are less experienced they should be more talented overall. The DB's are better and there is more depth. Special teams will be dicey, with punting being a hopeful A+ and place kicking a complete mystery. Cousins is solid and has a good arm with great leadership. The wide receivers will suprise some people and offer A LOT of opportunity to run multiple looks, including 2 legit wildcat QB's, plenty of arms on the perimeter, and end around speed with Martin. I like this team as well as any in the last 10 years from top to bottom.

It comes down to winning close games. The close games went to the green and white in 2008, winning 9 games including 2 of 3 points or less. The close games went to the opponents in 2009, with MSU losing 3 games by 3 points or less and 2 by 8 points. That means that 5 games were in play in the closing minutes. In that context, 6-6 doesn't look quite as bad. Senior leadership should help answer that problem in 2010. The soft schedule won't hurt, either. (7 home, 4 true road, 1 in Detroit, no OSU)

slight backtrack

I should say that Pearl couldn't coach as long as he has, and win as many games as he has, without scrutiny. To that end, there is no evidence to say he cheats. I just get the feel that he is slimy. I mean, you are what you recruit, right? In football it happens almost everywhere. In basketball you don't have players charged with firearms and drug possession without there being some indication that, hmm, maybe this guy is a problem. Basketball teams have too few players to not know what is going on. Unless, of course, you cover your eyes.

Also, you can still have fun while coaching at a high profile program. That fun should probably not include taking photos while draped across the laps of coeds 1/3 your age. Larry Eustachy thinks this is Class-E.

Same goes for Prince. In postgame comments TN's Prince talked trash to Ohio State's Evan Turner about a no call late in the game. Turner got blocked and the no call was correct. Prince didn't need to elaborate, first because he is 1/10th the player Turner is. Second because it wasn't necessary. You won, focus on the next game. Instead, basically, he invited Turner to shut up and watch the rest on the season from the couch. Classy, just like your coach.

Here is a nice little piece lifted from ESPN's Forde:

"One of the reasons we came to Tennessee is to be in a position like this," point guard Bobby Maze said. "It's not a surprise that we don't get overwhelmed by it. We believe that we are supposed to be here and we have very high expectations of ourselves.

"Some people have us as an underdog, and to us it's a joke. It drives us even more to succeed. Every game we've played in the tournament we have been picked to lose. That's funny."

"Actually, Bobby, nobody picked No. 14 seed Ohio to beat Tennessee. And very few people picked No. 11 seed San Diego State. So there's a reality check for you."

I also think that Chism, while a great player, is a headcase. If he comes out hot TN could roll. If he gets bumped, misses some shots, or gets in foul trouble early he could flip and take himself out of the game. If Chism goes down in flames so does TN. Or as he might so eloquently put it, in the 3rd person, "If Chism gets hot they better watch out, cause Chism and Chism's headband are the best 1-2 combo in the country."

MSU vs TN

Somehow, someway, these Spartans come up with shots, stops, plays, whatever it takes to win.

Forget that they can't finish a 3 on 1 breakaway.

Forget that their free throw shooting is mediocre at best.

Forget that no one is healthy enough to play at 100%.

Its March. Beware the Izzo's of March. Early April, too, if you please.


I do not like Bruce Pearl. I do not like Mike Kryzekiskeksssceeeiiski either. However, I respect what coach k has done. I do not respect Bruce Pearl. I think he, like Steve Alford, is a loser. In fact, I think Pearl is a hybrid of every bad coaching quality I can think of.

I watched earlier this year, during a preseason tournament, when the Vols played Purdue. I have a strong dislike for coaches that cannot control themselves and end up talking trash to players. Grow up. I don't want to hear about competitiveness or any of that crap. You don't trash talk 18-20 year olds if you are a grown man. If you can't be above that you have no business coaching. In fact, I don't really know what you are qualified to do for a living with that skill set. It likely involves scooping food at prison cafeterias.

Also, Bruce Pearl is greasy. I have no doubt he sits in living rooms talking trash about other coaches and programs. I would not be surprised in the least to find out he lies, cheats, or does whatever it takes to keep players eligible. The funny part? He turned in his own program in the past. I can't say for sure. He just gives that feel.

Finally, he has Steve Fisher type coaching skills. Those being: 1. recruit, 2. sit and watch, 3. sweat. Korie Lucious has been described as having "a little playground" to his game. Imagine 5 players on the floor at once with "a lot of playground." Think the fab five. No doubt skilled. Coached? Less likely. Just as likely to come out and drop 50 in a half on 15 3's as they are to jack up 50 shots and make 2. Beat Kentucky and lose to Georgia. Sneak past DePaul.

No doubt they have length and talent. Scariest of all, their length can put it on the floor. They trap and are athletic. Even at full strength this team would give MSU fits. Without lucas this is a tough, tough draw. The hope has to be that Raymar takes care of the ball, Allen is healthier, and Tenn is cold from the floor.

My best guess:

MSU 69
TN 68